MLB two team parlay (+155) – 4/15/21

MIN ML over BOS -155, TB ML over TEX -183 (+155)

We nailed the Giants game yesterday, but Houston let us down big time for the second time in the past week so they’re officially on the shit list for the month.

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now, winning 9 in a row after getting swept out of the gate by the Orioles. However, they face a tall task today trying to complete a 4 game sweep against the 2020 AL Central champs, the Twins.

After getting swept yesterday in the doubleheader, I expect a strong bounce back performance from the home team Twins offense and one of the many solid Twins’ starters, Michael Pineda.

Minnesota will be facing one of the worst starters in an already mediocre Boston rotation, Garrrett Richards, so early run support for Pineda will be key to cruise to an easy victory.

It’s tough in baseball to even beat a bad team 4 times in a row, especially after sweeping a doubleheader, so I’ll take my chances with a solid Twins team to win and end the losing streak.

Next, the Texas Rangers, who in my opinion have the worst overall team top to bottom, have managed to start out 5-7. They’ve taken two in a row from the Rays the past two days after Tampa won the first game, so now the Rays also sit at 5-7 and are looking to split the 4 game series today.

I’m not a huge fan of FiveThirtyEight’s overall team rankings, but their pitcher ratings are extremely useful. On their scale, about 50 is average, anything in the 40’s is below average, and anyone in the 60’s is a top tier ace. For reference, Gerrit Cole has the highest pitcher rating of 65.1.

Today the Rangers trot out their worst starter, Jordan Lyles (45.9), against the Ray’s second best starter, Rich Hill (53.7). With the strong edge in the pitching matchup and the Rays without a doubt having a more dangerous lineup, I love the Rays in this matchup to cash our parlay tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+178) – 4/14/21

SF ML over CIN -108, HOU ML over DET -227 (+178)

We hit on our plus money bet (KC +116) yesterday but the Braves gave up FOURTEEN runs to the Marlins to spoil the parlay.

Today, we start with Johnny Cueto and the Giants against the Reds, both teams sitting at 7-4. Cueto has looked great so far this season, and I’ll take his track record over Reds starter Tyler Mahle who has been solid recently but boasts a career ERA of 4.61.

The Reds have gotten off to a hot start this season by leading the league in runs per game (6.82), but they’ve cooled off recently averaging only 3 runs a game over their past three.

The Giants on the other hand are 4th in the league in runs allowed per game (3.18), so with the Reds offense trending downwards I like San Francisco today.

Houston broke my heart a couple days ago and are riding 4 game losing streak as they faceoff against the Tigers, who have won two in a row.

Detroit is putting Michael Fulmer on the mound for his first start of the year after three solid bullpen appearances. He’s struggled his entire career as a starter and he faces one of the Astros other aces, Lance McCullers.

I’m praying it doesn’t blow up in my face again, but I’m betting on the Astros again to break this losing streak and finally generate some offense. McCullers has been outstanding as usual so I feel safe with the discrepancy in the pitching matchup and overall lineups that Houston will right the ship.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+247) – 4/13/21

ATL ML over MIA -165, KC ML over LAA +116 (+247)

We nailed the Padres game yesterday but Greinke and the Astros offense let us down big time, bringing us to 19-16 (+10.71u) on this young MLB season. Today we go back to the basics with our two ML bets, and I’ve found the two with the best value.

First, we have the Braves coming off an extra inning loss against the Marlins last night. Atlanta is much better than their slow 4-6 start, as they have one of the best lineups top to bottom in the NL and should ascend to head of the NL East in the next week or two.

Similar to the Padres/Pirates game yesterday, I don’t see this Marlins team stringing together a three game winning streak, especially two in a row at the Braves’ home ballpark with two mediocre starters facing off against each other.

Next, we have Danny Duffy and the Royals, who sit at 4-4 after falling to the Angels last night. Duffy looks like a new pitcher this season, or at least closer to what we saw 2014-2017 before he was constantly riddled with injury and control problems.

In spring training Duffy’s hits and walks were down and strikeouts were up, and that trend continued in his first start of the season when he threw 6 shutout innings while only giving up 2 hits and striking out 5 against the Indians.

I expect another strong outing from Duffy and for this inconsistent yet talented Royals lineup to generate enough offense against an Angels team that is allowing 5.6 runs per game (T28th in the league) to win the game and go back above .500 and cash today’s parlay.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+220) – 4/12/21

SD -1.5 over PIT -140, HOU -1.5 over DET -115 (+220)

I’m switching up the parlay strategy slightly today from ML to spread due to the value on these two games and my confidence in both of these teams to win in blowout fashion or close to it.

The Pirates are coming off a two game win streak against the Cubs but still sit at 3-6 on the season.

Their winning streak ends today as they put Trevor Cahill on the mound (one of the league’s worst starters) against the Padres’ top 5 offense.

They also have Yu Darvish on the mound, so I expect a solid start out of him and early runs for the Padres to cover. Only 1 out of the Pirates 6 losses has been by only one run and the Padres are currently #1 in the league in runs allowed per game (2.30).

On the flip side, we have Zack Greinke and the Astros coming off a two game skid against the lowly A’s to face the Tigers, giving up 6 runs per game (ranked 28th).

The Astros right the ship today with their ace on the mound and facing the worst team in the AL in just about all facets of the game.

I expect this Tigers lineup to struggle against Greinke and for the offensive explosion Houston is due for to occur, making this an easy win.

At the end of the day, I tried to not overthink today’s play. Two of the best teams in the league going against two of the worst teams in their league with favorable pitching matchups.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+170) – 4/9/21

NYY ML over TB -132, CLE ML over DET -186 (+170)

We hit again yesterday, making our daily parlays 3-1 the past 4 days. Today, we start with the Yankees over the Rays in the afternoon.

The Rays got off to a 2-0 start against Miami but have since dropped dropped 4 in a row. The Yankees sit at 3-3 but come off a tough late inning loss to the Orioles on Wednesday, both teams having off days yesterday.

Corey Kluber faces off against Rich Hill, who had his struggles against the Marlins, only making it through 4 innings while giving up 4 earned runs.

Hill faces a taller task today, a well rested Yankees lineup who is heating up (averaging almost 6 runs per game over their past 3) while the Rays are cooling down offensively (3 runs per game over their past 3).

I expect a quality start from Kluber and enough offense from this loaded Yankees team to take the game with ease.

The Tigers and Indians meet again after Detroit took two out of three from the Cleveland to start the season.

This Indians lineup isn’t great this year, but it has much more pop than Detroit and Cleveland is on the better side of the pitching matchup with Zach Plesac on the mound.

Julio Teheran may have gotten the win against the Indians last week, but he was fortunate to only give up one run in five innings as he walked 3 and gave up 4 hits. I expect him to regress back closer to what we saw in a decent sample size last season, a 10.05 ERA in 10 games (31.1 IP).

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+220) – 4/8/21

BOS ML over BAL -156, KC/CWS Under 8 -105 (+220)

The Red Sox and Orioles meet again already in this young season after the O’s somewhat shockingly swept the Red Sox at Fenway to start the season.

Boston followed it up by sweeping the Rays themselves to get to 3-3, while Baltimore narrowly avoided getting swept by the Yankees in extra innings last night to improve to 4-2.

The journey to below .500 begins today for the Orioles, as they put Matt Harvey on the hill against Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is making his season debut and first appearance since 2019 after missing the 2020 season due to COVID.

Harvey hasn’t been a serviceable pitcher in this league since he helped take the Mets to (and lose) the World Series in 2015, and this Boston lineup has the benefit of seeing him less than a week ago. I expect a lot of early runs from Boston and stellar start from Rodriguez to hit leg one with ease.

The Royals and White Sox are both top ten in the league so far averaging 6+ runs per game, but I expect these inflated numbers to drop today for two main reasons.

First, the pitching matchup has Brad Keller going for the Royals, and Lance Lynn on the bump for Chicago. Don’t let Keller’s one bad start and 40.50 ERA (!) to start the season fool you, as he’s been the most consistent starter for KC over the past few years.

Keller went 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine starts in 2020, so I expect him to bounce back strong to get his season back on track after a hellish first inning to start the year.

We all know what to expect from Lynn, one of the White Sox big offseason additions to bolster their already strong rotation. This Royals offense has cooled off the past few games, averaging under 3 runs their last three games, so that trend should continue facing Lynn.

The second reason I like the under here is the quick turnaround for both teams. The White Sox finished up a series in Seattle last night, while the Royals are coming in from Cleveland after finishing up a two game set there.

This scenario almost always benefits the well rested starting pitchers as opposed to the offenses, especially in this pitching matchup. Anything can happen late, but both teams have solid enough bullpens that I feel great about the under.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+205) – 4/7/21

STL ML over MIA -117, SD ML over SF -155 (+205)

We’re boiling hot the past two days in MLB, going 7-0 overall (+14.45u) and hitting both parlays on Monday and yesterday.

Today, I’m sticking with a two teamer and I feel great about both of them. First, the Cardinals take on the Marlins with Flaherty on the mound.

He struggled in his first start and a bit in the shortened 2020 season, but today is the day the Cardinals get their ace back in form against the inexperienced Marlins lineup, while St. Louis will be able to scratch across enough runs to win the game.

Starting around the same time is the Padres and Giants, which I love the Padres in. They have Blake Snell on the mound facing one of the league’s worst offenses and just all around bad teams.

I don’t see a scenario where the Giants are able to generate enough offense early off of Snell to keep up with the Padres superior lineup, so St. Louis and San Diego is who we’re rolling with today to keep the hot streak going.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB 3 team parlay (+474) – 4/6/21

WAS ML over ATL -121, HOU ML over LAA -104, LAD ML over OAK -166 (+474)

After cashing out on the Royals and Yankees yesterday, we’re rolling with the aces today, starting with Max Scherzer and the Nationals.

After a delay to the start of their season due to COVID, the Nats play their first game of the year against the winless Braves. They will put veteran but extremely average lefty Drew Smyly on the mound to face Scherzer.

With Atlanta only mustering 3 runs in their entire series against the Phillies, it’s unlikely today is the day they get right facing one of the best pitchers in the league. If the Nationals can get a few runs early, expect Scherzer to cruise and an easy win to start the season for Washington.

Our next cyborg in line is Zack Greinke, who will face off against Angels righty Dylan Bundy.

Bundy has been able to resurrect his career so far with the Angels after his struggles in Baltimore, but he’ll be dealing with baseball’s hottest offense out of the gate, as the Astros are averaging 8.2 runs per game so far.

After experiencing their first loss in heart breaking fashion last night, I expect Houston to bounce back big today with Greinke on the mound.

Last but not least, we have Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. I certainly won’t call him a cyborg at the moment, but after a rough first start he has a great opportunity to get right tonight against the A’s pitiful lineup (averaging 2.4 runs per game).

Behind Kershaw and the Dodgers high powered lineup, the A’s won’t find their first victory here and the Dodgers will finish up leg 3 late tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+208) – 4/5/21

KC ML over CLE +111, NYY ML over BAL -217 (+208)

The Royals have been one of the hottest offensive teams out of the gate, averaging over 9 runs per game in their opening series against the Texas Rangers.

KC also has the better end of the pitching matchup, as veteran lefty Danny Duffy takes the hill against Logan Allen, who is making his 5th start of his young career.

Duffy is as healthy as he’s been his entire career and had an incredible spring, so I expect a quality outing from him and the Royals revamped lineup to rough up the youngster early to cruise to a win.

One could certainly argue that the Orioles and Yankees had the two most surprising starts to the season, with Baltimore sweeping the Red Sox and the Yankees offense struggling to a 1-2 start.

That changes today, as this Yankees lineup has no better time to get right than with Jorge Lopez on the mound for the O’s and his career 6.03 ERA. The baseball world will balance itself out, as it’s nearly impossible to see the Orioles improving to 4-0 to start the season with Lopez on the mound against this lineup.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

Championship game spread bet/analysis – Gonzaga/Baylor

Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga

We know these are both incredible teams and the whole tournament has felt like it’s just been a buildup to this game.

Gonzaga is looking to complete a perfect season after the Bruins took them to OT, but their inability to stop UCLA is concerning when they now matchup with the only other team in the country that has the offensive weapons to go toe to toe with them.

UCLA did hit a lot of contested shots, so what’s more concerning to me is Baylor’s depth against Gonzaga. The Zags like to roll with their starting 5 for the majority of the game and that’s about it, but in this marathon tournament Baylor’s depth off the bench and freshness coming off their victory over Houston is being overlooked.

Baylor looked incredible on both sides of the ball as they dominated Houston and completely controlled the game. In my opinion, this line should be much closer to a pick em’ so if I can get 4.5 points with either team, I’ll take it.

It’s going to be tough to live up to the excitement of the UCLA/Gonzaga game, but this championship matchup just might be able to top it. This should be a close game and a championship for the ages, so Baylor +4.5 is the spread play.

Mr. FC