CFB Plays for Saturday – 9/4/21

What a way to start the weekend. UNC finished the game better in every team stat nearly but Sam Howell throws 3 INT’s and #10 UNC gets beat in the first game of the season. The -5.5 felt like a trap and I fell into the trap, for that I’m sorry to steer you wrong. However, there are plenty more games to win it back and these are some that I think get the job done. Happy Saturday! Welcome Back CFB!

Texas Tech/Houston, Take Texas Tech ML -125 (7PM EST)

Texas Tech is back, and the Red Raiders are led by potential first round pick Tyler Shough. He has a good veteran line to stand behind and pick apart this defense. The Red Raiders return 11 of their top 13 tacklers on defense and while they weren’t amazing on that side of the ball necessarily, I don’t believe in the Houston offense enough.

Texas Tech wide receiver Erik Ezukanma’s 748 receiving yards ranked No. 3 in the Big 12 last season and is looking to continue that trend with Shough. Marquis Waters also was brought in from Duke to help with some of the secondary issues as well.

Neither teams have been known for their defense or their winning lately. However, I believe the winner of this game has some bowl aspirations and could put together a decent season. I think that team is the Red Raiders. Tech @ -125, some sites even have them at +100 still

Clemson/Georgia, Clemson -3 (730PM EST)

Not Trevor Lawrence but DJ Uiagalelei. Learn to say it, learn to pronounce it, because you should be hearing it all season. 6’4 260 pounds of pure quarterback. He played two games last season in Lawrence’s absence and finished with 914 yards, 5 Touchdowns and completed 67% of his passes. Not to mention that their secondary might be the best in college football despite losing Derion Kendrick to none other than Georgia.

Georgia has a very strong run game and JT Daniels is back to play some good football as well. While the secondary is fantastic, he has a ton of help at the line and will have time to find holes, while also having that run game to help chew clock.

This will be a defensive game and will be won that way. I don’t think either team will be able to run the ball with Bryan Bresse taking over that DLine with the help of Myles Murphy and Tyler Davis stuffing up the middle.

If you don’t like it, I’m a big plus money guy, +125 for UGA isn’t awful either. It’s for sure not the worst decision you could make today. But, while many think this game is a toss-up, I like Dabo and DJ too much. Clemson -3

LSU/UCLA, UCLA ML +120 (830PM EST)

The UCLA run game was as good as expected in a Week 0 win against Hawai’i. Duke transfer Brittain Brown averaged six yards per carry and Michigan transfer Zach Charbonett hadover 100 yards and 3 touchdowns. While the pass game isn’t fully there yet, there were no turnovers on offense which is a positive and the game was run heavy as they were in front wire to wire anyways. The defense was pretty good and saw some reps while forcing two interceptions and got a couple sacks.

LSU is no joke though. Coming in ranked 16th in the country. Max Johnson takes the stage at Quarterback and while his 2-0 record and 8 touchdowns look impressive, I think his decision making and arm strength is still in question coming into this game. The LSU defense got better throughout the season last year and has a great secondary with Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks.

Overall, I think the LSU run defense isn’t strong enough and unfortunately with everything going on back home I don’t think their priorities are straight going on the road to a team that already has a great game under their belt. Take UCLA +120

Army at Georgia State, Army ML +110 (12PM EST)

Took a couple money lines but you can get Army at +110 right now and I don’t see a reason to not be happy about it. Army traditionally holds the ball for most of the game and last year had the #1 ranked defense in the country to compliment its creative rushing scheme. Their team is nearly identical to last year except for the UPGRADES in the secondary.

However, Georgia State is nothing to laugh at. They bring back all 11 starters and their pass game is good enough to cause problems. Last year they averaged over 400 yards per game putting them among the Top 40 and scored enough to put them in that range there too.

All in all though, Army is gonna hold the ball and their rushing attack won’t have much pushback as the Panthers have a new linebacking core to deal with and get accustomed to. Wouldn’t be surprised if Army took it home, I’m taking the plus money, if you don’t like it take the free field goal to be safe at +2.5

BONUS- USC -14, Purdue -7, UI Lafayette +8.5

Be sure to check out the other guys on twitter @sandmanpicks, @d_buckets, and of course @itsafullcount for great insight on the games this weekend and their picks!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FUTURES

What’s up gang, Dylan Moore/@d_buckets here to give you even more content than you deserve honestly. But I’m not a hero. That’s not up to me. I’ll be posting some articles, previews, and soon even some videos (safe for work). So if you like this or want more; tell a friend, let me know, or just click on it a bunch and help get us that Draft Kings ad money.

Clemson +525 to win natty

There are 2 ACC teams that might give Clemson a scare this season, UNC and Miami. Clemson doesn’t play either in the regular season, so even with a loss to Georgia in week 1, I’d still like their chances of making the playoff. We’d then have a team at better than 5:1 in a semi-final, which at the least should give us a great hedging opportunity, and could even end up going all the way, which not many teams can do.

2. Oregon 50:1 to win natty

Loaded defense and a good coaching staff, despite how conservative they were with Herbert at QB. This is mostly a play against the powers that be now, and hopefully a fun bet to track throughout the season. So don’t come back with hate mail if they lose to Fresno.. if they lose, or if you still send mail. I actually really like the way their schedule lines up, and Ohio State doesn’t look QUITE as unstoppable as usual. Meaning if Oregon can win or even lose close next week @ OSU, that may be enough to get into a playoff. Game @ Utah near end of season is going to be fantastic.

3. Desmond Ridder 33:1 to win Heisman

4. Malik Willis 40:1 to win Heisman

Both Heisman picks play QB, but both play at schools who aren’t likely to garner the attention they deserve. Which is why I love em! What bet is more fun than the exciting QB who bursts onto the national spotlight, and leads to you telling your college buddies about how you were early on him. Even though they should’ve known who they were already, don’t hold back. Let em know who’s boss. It’s you. You’re the boss. For reading this. Now plug those suckers in and google what channel Liberty football plays on.

5. Texas A&M o9.5 wins (+100)

There are 2 likely routes I see to getting to 10 wins.

  1. Go 10-0 vs all non-Bama/LSU teams
  2. Go 9-1 vs all non-Bama/LSU teams, beat Bama at home or LSU away

The schedule is extremely favorable for an SEC West team, and the games against Auburn and the Mississippi’s should be a talent mismatch. I also think they’re substantially better than LSU, so if it comes down to that last game in Death Valley, I’d still like our chances.

Thanks for reading!

vamos

(NFL futures next week!)

Sandman bet #2 of Week 1 – PSU/WIS

Penn State +5.5

Hey all, it’s @sandmanpicks again. Well we could’ve started the season a little better, losing our first bet after it was looking great for the entire first half. But, we move on and hope to hit some other games. My second bet of the week is going to be Penn State +5.5 at Wisconsin. Here’s why-

Experience on Offense

Penn State brings back Sean Clifford for his third year under center. He did struggle mightily in 2020, especially at the beginning of the season but was good to great in 2019, and I expect to see that version of Clifford this year. Penn State also brings back veterans around Clifford like senior WR Jahan Dotson and junior RB Noah Cain, who was great his freshman year before suffering a season ending knee injury to open last year. Getting Cain back will be a huge boost. From the Wisconsin side they return Graham Mertz who was very inconsistent last year and will be playing his first game in front of fans. Outside of Mertz, there’s not a ton to love with his supporting cast. Jalen Berger and Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi form one of the weaker RB rooms in recent Badger history on paper. They do return two redshirt senior pass catchers in Jake Ferguson, Danny Davis and Kendrick Pryor, but neither of them have been close to as consistent as a guy like Dotson on the other side and wouldn’t scare me if I was Penn State. I think Penn State has the more battle tested and in my mind flat out more talented guys at the skill positions that will be ready to go and avenge last year’s nightmare. 

Defenses

Both these teams, as with most of the Big Ten, have strong defenses. Penn State did lose 3 studs on defense in the first 3 rounds of the draft last year, but they do return an experienced secondary. Tariq Castro-Fields and Joey Porter Jr headline what I expect to be one of the top units against the pass in the country this year. Combine this with the Badgers so-so receiving threats and question mark at QB, it should make for a long day for Graham Mertz. The Badgers will always get theirs on the ground, but having 2 stud corners who can cover 1 on 1 should allow them to stack the box on first and second downs. On the other side, I do expect the Badger defense to be solid too, however prone to the big play against more athletic teams. That’s been their big issue in the past and I expect to see it come into play at least once or twice tomorrow.

Recent History

Penn State has dominated Wisconsin in recent memory, 6-1 in their last 7 both SU and ATS. 

Neither team has had a challenge like this in week 1 under their current regimes, so it remains to be seen how they will handle it, but once again I like Penn State’s experience on offense a little bit more, especially under center. I think it’s a close game the whole way and Penn State keeps it within a score at the end.

The Pick – Penn State +5.5 1u

Record – 0-1(-1.5u)

CFB Play for Friday Night – 9/3/21

Hey everyone, I’m Brewer Vega your average analyst. I’ve been betting for a few years and have come through with the most exciting picks and the ones that will get your money’s worth.

My main sport is NCAAB when the season comes but I also will be sharing my CFB picks and NFL picks as they come through the weeks. I’m excited to be apart of the FullCount family and help you all out every opportunity I can. Sometimes it’ll be a pick, sometimes it will be a parlay, probably whatever seems the most fun and most profitable.

Bet of the Day- North Carolina/Virginia Tech, Take UNC -5.5 (6pm EST)

I know it’s the first week of the season and we shouldn’t get too antsy. I’m more than prepared for every favorite this weekend to win against their cupcakes and we’ll see by Sunday, who’s fake and who’s gunning for the top. 

There are a couple games that stand out to me, the first is North Carolina @ Virginia Tech. It seems as if the only thing the Hokies have going for them is that they’re at home. UNC starts the season ranked #10 in the country behind Heisman Watchlist Junior QB Sam Howell. Although they have lost some weapons they are replaced with a trio of young athletic receivers in Emery Simmons, Antoine Green, and Josh Downs. 

The Virginia Tech pass rush is one of the only things defensively that had any positives last year and the Tar Heels return all five offensive lineman. There’s a lot of untapped potential in VT’s locker room but I don’t think you’ll see much of it in this game. They will be working out their kinks as much as UNC but Tar Heels seemingly still have more experience with the Hokies new QB being a transfer.

Spread is only -5.5, give me UNC by a Touchdown. Lock of the Week.

WILD CARD- South Dakota State/Colorado State, Take CSU -2.5 (9PM EST)

This is one I don’t know enough about to tell you all to lock it in, but Colorado State seems to save me. In all my bad days there is always a bright light coming from Fort Collins, Colorado. They take on the Jackrabbits who have a weaker secondary against CSU’s semi-strong passing game.

Colorado State also gets to the quarterback well on the defensive side. In their 4 games last year during COVID they combined for 16 sacks, which is more than Ole Miss, South Carolina, and a bunch of other schools that played 9 or more games.

Colorado State also has home field advantage, give the Rams a Field Goal at -2.5.

Current Record (0-0)

MLB 3 best bets for today (+610 parlay) – 9/3/21

PIT ML over CHC +121, NYY -1.5 over BAL -120, HOU ML over SD -133 (+610)

Before pouring myself into NFL, I wanted to take at least one more day to focus on MLB on this beautiful Friday. After looking over the slate of games, these are the three that stood out to me with the best value, starting with PIT ML +121.

We have a classic suck-off (phrasing) at Wrigley today for a classic Bet While You Work game, with the Pirates riding a three game losing streak after falling to the Cubs in extra innings last night, who have now won three in a row.

These teams are about equally horrible at the moment and it just feels like the Cubs are due to drop one with the pitiful lineup they’re sending out, so I’ll take the plus money on the Pirates to end their losing streak.

Next, I love the revamped Yankees and starter Nestor Cortes Jr. to cover against John Means and the Baltimore Orioles. Means hasn’t been the same pitcher this season since returning from a strained shoulder, posting an ERA well over 5 across 8 starts since returning July 20th.

The Yankees are 6th in the league in OPS against LHP, so I expect them to have a solid offensive day behind a quality start from Cortes Jr., who has pitched at least five innings and given up 3 runs or less in five out of his past six starts.

Late tonight, we have an interleague matchup between two teams with starting pitchers returning from the injured list, Jose Urquidy of the Astros and Jake Arrieta of the Padres.

Urquidy was solid all season until his injury and pitched 7 innings over two rehab starts recently while only giving up one run, while Arrieta hasn’t been effective for years, currently posting a laughable 7.13 ERA this season over 21 starts.

This is the perfect opportunity for the slumping Astros offense to have a breakout game after a day off, while the Padres’ offense has been struggling for a couple weeks now. With the huge edge in the pitching matchup and slight edge offensively, I see the Astros pulling this game out late tonight to cash the parlay.

I’ll be putting one unit on each game individually, as well as one unit on the parlay. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

NFL play for opening night DAL/TB – 9/9/21

Although I dabbled in some preseason action (4-1 +2.27u), NFL betting season officially kicks off on Thursday with the defending Super Bowl champs taking on a (recovered?) Dak and the Cowboys.

The biggest question mark in this game is obviously how Dak Prescott bounces back from his injury after no preseason action. Week 1 I feel like we tend to see lines that are a bit biased based on how last season ended, so memories of the dreadful Cowboys last year and Brady led champs can lead people to forget a little bit about the actual game ahead, impacting the line significantly.

Should the Bucs and Brady be favored? Definitely. Do I think it should be closer to field goal than a touchdown? Hell yes. Brady is only getting older and was carried by his defense in the Super Bowl and much of the playoffs. The Cowboys were forced to be one dimensional last season and now come back at full power, so I expect this to be a tight game that could go either way.

With that being the case, I’m absolutely going to take the points given to the Cowboys and be on DAL +7.5 to start this glorious NFL season.

Mr. FC

CFB Play for Thursday Night – 9/2/21

Hey everyone, @sandmanpicks here. I’ve been betting CFB for 3 years now and have developed a betting method that combines numerical analysis and research with knowledge of the game and experience.

Outside of CFB, I specialize in NCAAB and NFL, but college football is definitely my specialty. I’ll be giving anywhere from 2-5 plays per week on this site throughout the season. In my experience that’s the sweet spot to avoid being killed by juice but also have some diversity to limit risk.

I may give out a parlay for fun some weeks as well, and my plays will range from .5u to 2u with the majority just coming in at 1u. With that, I will get into my first play for the 2021 season of college football! 

Bet 1- Ohio State/Minnesota U65.5 1.5u(Thursday 9/2, 8pm ET)

My favorite bet of Week 1, as well as the first game I’ll have action on for this season, is a Big Ten under. There are a few reasons why I love this bet so much, most coming from the Minnesota side of the ball.

Past Precedence– Under PJ Fleck, in games where Minnesota have been underdogs of 6 points or more, the under is 6-1(including a 2017 game vs OSU that went under by 17 points). Last season, Ohio State was 25th and Minnesota was 27th in rush attempts per game, which always bodes well for eating clock and game going under. Additionally, Minnesota was 7th in time of possession last year with a subpar roster that was behind in most games so expect them to try to keep the ball out of the hands of Stroud, even if trailing. If they manage to hang in for even the first half, I’d expect Mo Ibrahim to see at least 30 carries and PJ Fleck to strive for 8 minute drives every time the Gophers have the ball.

Personnel- Both teams lost huge production in their vertical offense, in Rashod Bateman and Justin Fields. Field’s absence will be huge. CJ Stroud, Fields freshman replacement will be eased into the game in a super tough big ten road environment to start his career. Another factor that should limit quick strike offense is Minnesota’s top returning receiver, Chris Autman Bell is currently questionable for the game. Behind him, the most experienced receiver on the Minnesota roster is Daniel Jackson who put up 167 yards on 12 catches in his 2020 freshman campaign. Expect both teams to be even more run heavy early in the season, and for Minnesota to feed their best player and top running back in the country, Mohammed Ibrahim. 

If Minnesota can keep this game within a few possessions throughout the game, and therefore be able to stick to their run game, this game goes under easily. If not, I still expect Stroud to struggle early and for Ryan Day to turn to the ground game to take some pressure off of his true freshman. 

Current Record 0-0 (+0u)

MLB two team parlay (+212) – 9/1/21

SD -1.5 over ARI -130, HOU ML over SEA -131 (+212)

As we enter the final month of the regular season, we’re sitting pretty at 119-113 (+32.29u) on the season so far!

We start September off with a couple of favorites I feel great about taking care of business today, beginning with the the Padres covering against the lowly Diamondbacks.

The Padres are looking to complete the 3 game sweep of Arizona with Yu Darvish on the mound (54.9 rolling game score) against Luke Weaver (50.1 rolling game score).

With the Padres in win at all costs mode being tied with the Reds for the last NL wild card spot, I expect them to keep taking advantage of their upper hand in the pitching matchup and obviously more dangerous lineup to complete the sweep with ease.

To hopefully close out the parlay, I like the Astros and righty Jake Odorizzi straight up on the ML to take down the Mariners and Logan Gilbert and win the series 2-1. After only mustering only 6 runs in their last 3 games, I expect Houston’s offense to bounce back mightily against Gilbert, who posted a 9.13 ERA over five starts in August.

Between a strong offensive performance and a quality start fro Odorizzi, Houston should have no problem roughing up the M’s and taking the series and game to cash out our parlay.

Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+419) – 8/28/21

CLE ML +120, KC ML +136 (+419)

The Indians have been dominant behind righty Cal Quantrill this month, as he’s posted a 1.45 ERA over five starts while striking out 34 over 31 innings while only allowing five earned runs. On top of this, the Cleveland offense has started to heat up, so I love the plus money value on Cleveland to take down the Red Sox.

Next, the Royals continue to win with their young crop of pitching and I don’t see that changing today with Daniel Lynch on the mound. Not only has the Royals offense exploded onto the scene in the last few weeks, but their starting rotation and bullpen has been around the league best.

Again, with the plus money given, I love the odds on the Royals to continue their offensive onslaught against a struggling Seattle team while Lynch continues to dominate. Also, the Royals have been mashing lefty’s lately, so I especially like them to rough up Tyler Anderson today.

Mr. FC

Is it time for KC fans to give up on GMDM or was Matheny the wrong hire?

Full disclosure, I’ve grown up my whole life as a Royals fan. I was born in 1994, and have been to just about every opening day since 1999. The first above .500 season I saw was in 2003 when I was 9 years old and used to leave hand written AL Central standings outside my dad’s room at the beginning of the season when KC was in first place because I’d never cheered for a winner before.

I was always confused why his excitement didn’t seem to match mine since I knew he hadn’t seen the Royals in the playoffs since their 1985 championship, but he knew what was coming. A mediocre 83-79 finish and no playoff berth. As a 27 year old adult, I obviously understand it a lot more now.

Dayton Moore was given a fair amount of leeway, and rightfully so, after taking a franchise that lost 100 games three season in a row following that 2003 campaign to an eventual World Series champion in less than a decade in a small market. However, this 2021 season was supposed to be the step forward towards the next run for GMDM, and it has certainly hasn’t been.

With how this season has played out, I think Royals fans should find themselves at a crossroad. Whether it be GMDM or Mike Matheny, whoever has made the inexcusable decisions of keeping Edward Olivares in Omaha and not playing everyday at the big league level while Dyson and others eat up at bats, as well as Jackson Kowar not getting big league reps whether it be out of the bullpen or starting, should be fired.

If Matheny has full power over his roster and decisions, then he is absolutely blowing it and his moves obviously don’t align with GMDM vision of drafting college starters to make an impact as soon as possible to compete next year. Same with the Olivares situation. If it’s GMDM that is behind the scenes making these calls, then he is 100% contradicting what he is saying and doing otherwise, and it’s time for him to go.

Either way, Royals fans deserve better than what we’ve been given this season. The good news is I do have faith either way in the young arms GMDM has drafted and the young bats we have now in AAA to be impact players next season.

Mr. FC