The win streak moved to 3 yesterday as the Blue Raiders dominated UTEP and won by 18 as 5 point favorites, following our wins on Buffalo and Princeton Thursday and Friday. Tonight, I head back to the Ivy League for a game that reminds me very much of the Princeton/Brown game we won with ease Friday night.
Yale (#147) -3 over Dartmouth (#232)
I see this as a lazy line similar to the Princeton game mentioned above because when these two teams met earlier this month, Yale was just able to escape with a 72-69 win despite being favored by 7 points. However, Yale played uncharacteristically that game, giving up 17 turnovers (big contrast from their season average of 12), which helped create 17 points for Dartmouth. Eliminate just a few of those unforced errors, and we’re looking at closer to a double digit win for Yale.
Looking at recent games, Yale was riding a 7 game win streak before falling to the other top team in the conference, Princeton (#112), by a score of 81-75 on Saturday. While Dartmouth is riding a two game winning streak, they are 4-6 in their past 10 and they took down three of the worst teams in the conference in that run, Columbia (#350) twice, Cornell (#197), and Brown (#202).
I expect Yale to take better care of the basketball this time around, show why they’re both the more efficient offensive and defensive team (192nd vs 280th and 124th vs 234th), much better shooting and rebounding team (170th vs 308th and 141st vs 256th). If all else fails, they have the best player in the Ivy League, Azar Swain, who is averaging 18 PPG (2nd in the Ivy League) and always has the potential to take over and win the game himself.
Like yesterday’s Middle Tennessee game, I’m making this a 2 unit play. Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.
I stayed hot on Friday with a stress free win as Princeton beat Brown by 19 points as two point favorites, let’s keep it rolling into the new week with this Conference USA clash!
MTSU (#102) -5.5 over UTEP (#166)
One of my favorite mid major squads, the 19-7 (10-3) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders host the 16-10 (9-5) UTEP Minors, where MTSU is a perfect 12-0 so far this season. Even more impressive, their average margin of victory at home is nearly 18 points and have won by double digits in 10 of their 12 home games, while covering this number in all but one home game.
The Minors are coming off a 14 point road win over Southern Miss (#344), one of the worst teams in the conferences, while the Blue Raiders are white hot and currently on a 5 game winning streak, beating UTSA by 9, Old Dominion by 15, Charlotte by 15 (who beat UTEP by 13), FIU by 6, and Florida Atlantic by 8.
Besides the obvious homecourt advantage, Middle Tennessee is the much better offensive team, ranking 87th in the country in FG percentage vs UTEP’s 263rd and 68th in Offensive Efficiency vs UTEP’s 220th ranking. With all other factors (defense, rebounding, assists, turnovers, etc.) being pretty even, I’m rolling with the Blue Raiders at home to continue their winning streak and cover.
After missing on Fairfield on Wednesday, I bounced back yesterday with a solid W on Buffalo -10. Let’s head into the weekend strong with a winner tonight in this small slate of games!
Princeton (#130) -2 over Brown (#188)
It’s Friday so you know what that means… Ivy League hoops! Princeton 17-5 (7-2) takes on Brown 12-13 (4-6) as two point favorites as the Tigers beat the Bears 76-74 in their first matchup back on January 15th. When looking at the numbers for both teams over the course of the season and especially recent history, it’s apparent Princeton is way more than two points better than Brown in my opinion, so I love the value we get here on the spread.
When looking at that first fluky game between these two teams, Brown shot 57% from the field, a stark contrast from their season average of 43% (231st). They also shot 47% from 3, again a big anomaly from their season average of 32% (279th). In almost every aspect of the game, Princeton is better than Brown (11th in the field goal percentage, 17th in 3 point percentage, 82nd vs 198th in rebounding, 24th vs 245th in assists, 30th vs 211th in turnovers).
Although Brown is riding a two game win streak, it consists of an unimpressive one point win over Cornell (#193) and two point win over Dartmouth (#244), while Princeton is coming off an 85-40 thrashing of Dartmouth and 85-63 blowout of Columbia. It’s highly unlikely the Bears can repeat their insane shooting performance from their last matchup against Princeton (in which they still lost by 2), so I’m rolling with the Tigers to win and cover.
Oral Roberts/North Dakota State, Oral Roberts ML -105
You might remember Oral Roberts from last year’s March Madness. Well, they’re on a tough track to win their conference and make it back to the tournament this year. Star player Max Abmas averages 22.8 PPG (5th in the country) and leads his team in assists. This team loves to score the basketball, they almost forget how to miss on some nights. They are 6th in the country in PPG and shoot 46% from the field and 39% from 3 as a team. The Eagles are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine after an ATS loss. They have lost to NDST this year by 1 point, and I think it’s very hard to beat a team twice. Especially when in the first game, the Eagles shot 26% and had the lead with 7 seconds left. The Bison are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 at home, the spread opened at -2.5 for NDST and it’s turning to dust as a PK basically. Vegas knows something.
All the picks in one place: UNCW +3 Appalachian State -3.5 East Carolina +2 Youngstown State -6 South Alabama -1 Oral Roberts ML Santa Clara -5
I had a god awful beat on Monday, as Oregon won outright but missed free throws and gave up late three pointers to blow the cover after leading by 9 with less than a minute left. Yesterday I tailed BV’s picks and sprinkled in some of my own, going 9-6-1 (+1.03u). Let’s start off today with some early action, the 12-13 (6-8) Fairfield Stags hosting the 12-11 (5-9) Manhattan Jaspers.
Fairfield (#201) -5 over Manhattan (#264)
When looking at the numbers, Fairfield and Manhattan are pretty even on offense (191st and 203rd respectively). On the defensive side there is a much bigger gap, with Fairfield coming in at 205th and Manhattan all the way down near the bottom at 307th. Fairfield is also the better rebounding team, ranking 151st in the country verses Manhattan’s 298th. However, one of the biggest things that sticks out to me is turnovers. Manhattan is near the bottom of the country (318th) averaging nearly 15 turnovers per game, while Fairfield takes care of the ball much better, ranking all the way up at 39th in the country.
When looking at recent opponents/history, Fairfield has won their last two games, beating Canisius by 4 and Niagara by 20. Manhattan has played both of these teams as well this month, losing to Canisius by 7 and Niagara by 6. Manhattan’s 4-8 road record also leaves much to be desired, so I’m rolling with the Stags to win and cover at home today.
What a Super Bowl weekend, great fight from the Cincinnati Bengals. Cooper Kupp MVP is something I didn’t see coming but if you’ve been following DB for some time you’d have been continually winning money in the NFL. So until next year, we sit and watch college basketball and enjoy until March stands us all back up and makes us bite our nails once again. Let’s win some coin in the meantime!
Tulane/South Florida, Tulane -3.5
Tulane started off the season bumpy leading to their shaky 11-11 record. However, they sit at 8-5 in the conference at 14-8 against the spread overall. The Green Waves have been riding their hot wave as of late with a huge win over Temple on Saturday where they shot 50% from 3 point range and had 4 players in double figures. While this team struggles on the boards, they make up for it causing tons of turnovers and chaos on the defensive side of the ball. Their opponent the USF Bulls are 7-16, 2-9 in the conference, and have a losing record against the spread this season. The Bulls have an average rebounding squad to counter the Waves lack of, however, USF averages 57.6 points per game which ESPN ranks 445th. They shoot 37% from the field and only make 4 three pointers per game. This team isn’t strong enough to beat a Green Waves team that is picking up the slack in conference play. Tulane has already beaten them by 14 points at their own place, I can’t see a change of venue changing the result much.
All the picks in one place: UK ML +110 Texas -1 Cincinnati ML +130 Tulane -3.5 Hofstra -6.5 Providence +4.5 Colorado -4
After hitting on Middle Tennessee Thursday who covered with ease, I took a short break leading up to the Super Bowl, where I hit on Rams 1H ML and Rams ML but missed on the over. Let’s dive back into some college basketball to cure the post Super Bowl blues.
Oregon -4.5 over Washington State
Both teams in this Pac-12 matchup are coming off tough losses against bottom tier conference teams, with Oregon 16-8 (9-4) falling to Cal and Washington State 14-9 (7-5) losing to Arizona State. Oregon is at home in a must win game against a lesser opponent, as Oregon finds themselves on the bubble and can’t afford anymore losses like their most recent one to Cal.
With Oregon being at home in a much bigger game than it is for Washington State, along with Oregon being much better offensively (64th in FG percentage vs. WSU’s 291st), I love the Ducks tonight to maintain a lead throughout the game and win by at least five, even it takes a few last second free throws.
Tough beat last night as Ohio State couldn’t hold onto an eight point lead late in the game and lost outright. Still ended up in the green, 7-5 (+1.00u). Back at it today!
Middle Tennessee State (#120) -5 over Old Dominion (#223)
Middle Tennessee State 15-7 (6-3) hosts Old Dominion 9-14 (4-6) tonight, where Middle Tennessee is undefeated (10-0) with Old Dominion being an uninspiring 3-7 on the road. In recent action, MTSU has beaten UTSA by 9, Western Kentucky (#109) by 8, Southern Miss by 14, FIU (#248) by 11, and FAU (#116) by 13. Overall, they’ve won 6 of their last 7, with their only loss being on the road to the best team in the conference, UAB (#38).
Old Dominion is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 211th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3 point shooting percentage. In their last two games, Old Dominion has been blown out by FAU by 19 and Western Kentucky by 17, two teams MTSU handled with ease in recent weeks. With MTSU’s above average defense (103rd) mixed with a poor offensive performance from OD and a solid homecourt advantage, my money is on Middle Tennessee State to take care of business and cover tonight.
I spoke too soon as last night I finally had a losing record on a couple ballsy calls. Tonight’s slate is quite compelling as there are a lot of road favorites and long shot home favorites. Make your bets wisely today, we’ll see who can play in tough environments tonight. An important one for March.
Tennessee/Mississippi State, Tennessee -1.5
People are counting out Tennessee because of Mississippi State’s home record. Their only significant win at home is Alabama and early Arkansas who was very iffy before this past stretch of games. Tennessee ranks 33rd in defensive efficiency and have won 5 of their last 6 outright and 13-9 overall ATS. Mississippi State has also lost 4 of their last 6. Expect Tennessee to force more turnovers and extend their win streak tonight.
All the picks in one place: Houston -7 Xavier ML +145 Winthrop -8 Wake -3 North Florida +2.5 Oakland -3.5 Tennessee -1.5 Depaul -7.5