Best College Basketball Bet for 1/5/22

After going 39-27 betting the spread in every tournament game last season, I’ve had a slow start to the college basketball season with my focus being mainly on NFL and bowl season. With those winding down, I’m turning my attention back to CBB and will be trying to keep us in the green consistently.

FIU -15 over Bethune Cookman (12 PM CST)

FIU (9-4 and #243 via KenPom) hosts Bethune Cookman (3-9 and #349 out of 358) as 15 point favorites to open up action for college basketball today. FIU is 6-1 at home while Bethune Cookman is winless (0-7) on the road. Bethune Cookman is also no strangers to blowouts, as their last 4 losses have come by 23 to Marist, 17 to NC State, 36 to UCF, and 14 to Seton Hall.

FIU on the other hand has taken care of business against inferior opponents all season and beaten them down, taking down St. Thomas FL by 23, Florida Gulf Coast by 16, North Florida by 15, and Trinity College by 63 (not a typo). On top of this FIU flat out does everything better than Bethune Cookman: shooting percentage, rebounds, steals, turnovers etc. The big stat that jumps out to me is FIU is averaging nearly 11 threes per game (11th in the country) while Bethune Cookman is only averaging 4 (357th in the country).

With the discrepancy in talent, both teams being no strangers to blowouts, and FIU being at home for this early tip, I love the Golden Panthers to cover to kick off the day with some #WorkWhileYouBet action!

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

Where’s the value on AFC Championship future?

One of the most overlooked futures advantage for years has been the first round bye. That advantage has only heightened with there only being one instead of two obviously. Thanks to the Bengals beating the Chiefs, the Titans just need to beat the Texans Sunday to get wild card weekend off and home field advantage. For this reason and them only having the 3rd best odds to win the AFC, I love the value on Tennessee to make it to the Super Bowl at +500.

The Chiefs could of course go on another one of their runs, but with them potentially getting matched up with the Chargers wild card weekend, certainly not worth it for +190. The only other teams I think have a chance are the Bengals and Colts both at +900, but I’m sticking with the Titans at +500 with Derrick Henry returning and having some hedging opportunities if they can just win one game in the playoffs.

Mr. FC

List below via Vegas Insiders:

  • Kansas City Chiefs +190
  • Buffalo Bills +340
  • Tennessee Titans +500
  • New England Patriots +800
  • Cincinnati Bengals +900
  • Indianapolis Colts +900
  • Los Angeles Chargers +1800
  • Las Vegas Raiders +8000
  • Baltimore Ravens +10000
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +12500

NFL Primetime Teaser – Sunday and Monday Night

Happy new year to all! I’m looking to keep my teaser streak going into the new year with the primetime matchups on one heavy favorite and one small underdog.

Packers -6 over Vikings, Steelers +10 over Browns

What I foresee Sunday Night: Aaron Rodgers putting the finishing touches on his MVP middle finger season in primetime, 30+ points from the Packers, and dominating defense.

What I don’t foresee: Absolutely anything positive whatsoever from Sean Mannion and the Vikings at Lambeau in January. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t make it out of single digits. Give me the Packers -6 all day.

I got away with “crossing 0” on the tease and it worked for me last week, but that was a one time thing for a one off game. On this game give me the 10 points and the more experienced head coach and QB late in the season, not to mention the added emotion behind Big Ben’s last home game.

Follow along on Twitter @itsafullcount or Facebook.

Mr. FC

2 Best Bets for NFL Week 17 – KC/CIN PHI/WFT

I’m back this week with two spread bets after hitting 4 teasers in a row last week! May throw together another one for Vikings-Packers and Browns-Steelers, but for now focusing on my two favorite spread bets in the early slate of games Sunday.

Chiefs -5 over Bengals

The Bengals offense has feasted on bottom 10 defenses this season and been shut down by above average teams. The Chiefs are back to full strength on both sides of the ball and bode a top 5 defense and solid pass rush, which should be enough to hold down Joe Burrow and company.

On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes and the offense are finally coming into their own and playing closer to the powerhouse we’ve seen the past three seasons. Tyreek Hill will be at full strength and Travis Kelce returns as KC looks to lock in the #1 seed and home field advantage, so give me Mahomes and Andy Reid to take care of business late in the season as they tend to do against an overmatched Cincinnati team.

Eagles -3 over WFT

I tried not to overthink this one too much with how both teams have been playing and what’s on the line for the 8-7 Eagles. Philadelphia controls their own playoff destiny and can clinch a wild card spot by winning their last two games, or can clinch this week with a W, a Vikings loss to the Packers, and either a Saints loss to the Panthers or 49ers win over the Texans.

The Eagles are coming off a performance against the Giants where they outscored them 31-7 in the 2nd half after a slow start, while the 6-9 WFT got absolutely embarrassed by the Cowboys in primetime last week 56-14. The Eagles are by far the better team, should be MUCH more motivated, and should cover this spread with ease.

Follow along on Twitter @itsafullcount or Facebook.

Mr. FC

CFB Bowl Picks – 12/30/21

Quick article because I’m preparing for the new year and getting my ducks in a line but we got picks for you still. Check em’ out.

Tennessee/Purdue U65.5

While both these teams love to score, 65.5 is a ton of points to expect in a bowl game. Especially when these teams don’t look like themselves in this one. Purdue is down 3 WR’s including David Bell and their best pass rusher, while Corey Trice also battles a knee injury. Tennessee is missing their top corner, their right tackle and duo running back TiYon Evans. I think this game will be who can figure it out first and if it’s Tennessee they could run away with it. But the slow start leans me towards the under.

Pitt/Michigan State, Pitt +3.5

Couldn’t compel myself to ride with Michigan State. I honestly think that the backup for Pitt could get rolling and take this one home. Junior Nick Patti has shown signs of playing well and will certainly be competing for a starting job with a solid game here. Michigan State’s pass defense is one of the worst in the sport and they are without KW3 of course who opted to enter the draft. It’s up to Patti but I think the ACC Champs walk away with this one.

Arizona State/Wisconsin, Wisconsin -7

WE BET EVERY BOWL GAME IN THIS HOUSE! This is a defensive matchup where it is going to be running and run stopping. Total is too low for me to commit, but when Arizona State loses they have no real attack in the pass game to catch up and they are without their starting running back who is preparing for the draft. Wisconsin is the better team and doesn’t seem to be missing anyone, I hope the motivation is there.

CFB Bowl Picks – 12/29/21

4-0 Day yesterday, trying to keep the hot streak alive with these 3 today. Let’s get it.

Virginia Tech/Maryland, Maryland -4

Maryland is an ok school and an ok football team, they are bowl eligible with Taulia Tagovailoa leading the charge. Only real significance to speak of is that Virginia Tech is missing 5 starters and both their first and second string quarterbacks. Their head coach has agreed to part ways with the team as well leaving them with an interim coach for the bowl game. All is against VTech so I am taking Maryland.

Clemson/Iowa State, Clemson -2.5

While Clemson hasn’t been able to score much this year, they certainly have been playing solid defense. They have won their last 5 to close out the season and Dabo surely is trying to win a 10th game. Iowa State is a much lesser team at 7-5 that struggled down the stretch losing 4 of their last 6. There was a bright spot at running back but Breece Hall has opted out so they will have to find a new unique attack. Taking Clemson to finish the season off in style.

Oklahoma/Oregon, Oregon +7

This game is different. Both coaches are gone. Oregon has the potential #1 overall pick opting out and Oklahoma is missing some guys who have entered the transfer portal to follow Riley. Overall I think 7 points is too many and the Sooners will struggle more without Riley than the Ducks without Cristobal. They have a more solid defense and an offense with more identity. Lincoln Riley was the quarterbacks coach and primary play caller, I think with the way the offense struggled down the stretch, adding that in the mix won’t suit well.

BV

CFB Bowl Picks – 12/28/21

Hope everyone had a holly jolly Christmas and got everything they wanted. I want a better record against these bowl games as I’m a sad 6-8 right now, but there are better days ahead, like today. Let’s get to it.

Houston/Auburn, Houston ML +105

Houston is strong on both sides of the ball, they won 11 consecutive games leading up to their loss to #4 Cincinnati. Their offense has scored 40+ on 7 separate occasions and 30+ in 10 of the 13 games. Clayton Tune, their quarterback throws efficiently and limits turnovers. While running back, Alton McCaskill carries the ball for nearly 5 yards a carry. Auburn on the other hand I think lacks motivation for this game, which I think is the factor I’ve been ignoring when picking some of these bowl games. They haven’t been the same since they lost Bo Nix at the end of the season and I don’t see them attempting to slay the Cougars to make it all better.

Louisville/Air Force, Air Force ML -110

This is a similar situation as Army. They run the triple option and Louisville doesn’t stop the run very well. I think whoever scores first is probably going to win this game, it will be very hard for Air Force to come back if they go down, but with a few defensive stops AF can get the job done. Air Force is 5th in the FBS in yards allowed. Louisville has Malik Cunningham who is quite good and will cause some trouble but overall, I think AF is a better team with a better strategy that teams can’t really prepare for until you see it.

Mississippi State/Texas Tech, Texas Tech +10

That’s too many points for bowl season, fool me once. Since Tech switched coaches mid-season, they’ve hung 42 on Iowa State and gave Baylor a scare in their final game which says a lot to me. Not many defenses have been able to slow them down. Their own defense is the menace usually. While Mississippi State is the better team all around and could very well win outright (-380, if that’s your cup of tea). 10 point is a lot of points for an offense that produces at this rate of 30 PPG and 408 YPG.

UCLA/NC State, O60

I want to dodge this game; the line is at 1.5 and 60 is a lot of points but I said I would bet every game I had the opportunity to and here I am. I was going to say UCLA because I love this UCLA team and not only has their running attack been fantastic all year, but their QB Thompson-Robinson has really come into himself as a solid dual-threat QB compared to earlier in the season. Their pass defense however is awful, and NC State’s QB probably has something to say about that racking up at least 4 passing TD’s in 4 of their last 5 games. 3 players that caught for over 500 yards and a balanced rushing attack. It will be very hard for UCLA to slow them down. So I’m taking the over on points. 34-28 TBA

West Virginia/Minnesota, Minnesota -5

This one should be an easy one if Minnesota comes in motivated. Minnesota has a underrated dominating defense that ranks 11th against the pass and 8th against the run. As well, as the West Virginia offense is its weak spot, Jarrett Doege throws too many interceptions for me to be convinced, and their rushing attack can’t carry them through the struggle they will have in the pass game. As for the Golden Gophers, their rushing offense is very good tallying nearly 200 yards a game on the ground and a heavy armed Tanner Morgan at QB when needed. Did I mention WV’s leading rusher opted out?

BV

Monday Night Football Teaser MIA/NO – 12/27/21

My teaser win streak moved to 3 on Christmas Day so why not throw another one together for Monday Night Football on a slow sports day?

Dolphins +4 over Saints, Under 44.5

The Dolphins defense has given up 17 points or less in their past 6 games (17 to Jets last week, 9 to Giants, 10 to Panthers, 17 to Jets, 10 to Ravens, 9 to Texans). With both Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill out, the Saints turn to rookie QB Ian Book, 4th round pick out of Notre Dame.

Between the Saints trotting out a rookie against a defense coming into its own and the Saints defense coming off a shutout of Brady and the Bucs, I expect an ugly, low scoring game. But with the Dolphins obviously having the upper hand at QB, I like Tua and the rest of the offense to make enough plays to pull the game out outright, but the tease gets us 4 points for the Fins and the under up to 44.5.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

NFL Christmas Day Teaser – CLE/GB IND/ARI

I hit on my Monday AND Tuesday night NFL teasers so why not keep it rolling into Saturday? Merry Christmas and best of luck to everyone!

Packers -0.5 over Browns, Colts/Cardinals Under 56

The Browns lost another starting offensive lineman (center JC Tretter) to the COVID-19 reserve list after a positive test, adding to the 9 defensive players, two other o lineman, top two QBs, along with Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry. Even if Baker Mayfield does return (who I’m not high on anyways), he’ll be playing behind a second string offensive line at Lambeau on Christmas Day. Aaron Rodgers should pick apart the depleted Cleveland defense and it’ll be an easy win for the Packers.

The clear reality in Arizona is that the offense is mediocre at best without DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray looks lost. The Colts defense also seems to be coming into its own, giving up 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games.

There’s no reason to think the Colts and Jonathan Taylor won’t continue their success against a Cardinals defense that just gave up 112 yards (4.3 YPC) to Craig Reynolds, an undrafted journeyman from D2 Kutztown (yes it shockingly is a real school). I expect the Colts to control the clock and have a few lengthy drives, so I feel safe up at 56 with a couple teams that have played most of their games in the 40s.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

SF/TEN TNF Props – 12/23/21

Tennessee desperately trying to hold off the Colts and the 49ers in the opposite position in their division. With the Cardinals and Rams slipping up the door is opening for San Fran. The Titans OLine is really banged up missing their Left Tackle and Left Guard. I’m taking SF -3 and a couple pretty props to add to it.

George Kittle TD +145

George Kittle has been playing fantastic since he’s been back. Despite injury trouble early in the season, he is second on the team in receiving yards and first on the team in receiving TDs. In his last 3 games he’s at least 6 catches and 90 yards. Didn’t have a touchdown last week but I think the Titans will surely lose him at some point and he’ll get in.

Jimmy Garoppolo U1.5 TDs +106

I know this is kinda contradictory to the first one but who’s to say he won’t get Kittle and be done for the day. Weird stat but he has actually only thrown 2 TDs in 6 of their 14 games. They like to run the ball with Deebo and Jeff Wilson so don’t be shocked that the ball isn’t in Jimmy’s hands often. Just enough.