World Series Game 6 Prop Bets

We like the Rays on the money line tonight (+123), but here’s our 3 can’t miss prop bets:

Snell Over 5.5 strikeouts (-165)

Lowe Over 0.5 bases (-165)

Obviously not going out on a limb but these are sure hits. Snell will have his A+ stuff again tonight and we expect him to dominate in this must win game.

I’m still picturing Brandon Lowe blasting a homer off Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin in Game 2, so he’s the Ray to go with tonight at the plate.

Seager Over 1.5 bases (+100)

Take the even money on Seager. He’s been the best Dodger at the plate this whole series and his extra base hit upside makes this a good play.


Bears/Rams MNF Prop Bets

We love the Rams and the over tonight, but let’s take a look at the three best prop bets to cash in on tonight.

Jared Goff Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-120)

After a horrible performance last week against the 49ers, Goff and the Rams will bounce back strong and get back to their dynamic ways. Without a reliable running back, the over is the play here.

Jared Goff Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-120)

We expect the Bears to keep the game close enough to keep the Rams offense firing all game. This feels like a 300 yard, 3 touchdown game for Goff and the Rams.

Cooper Kupp Over 5 Receptions (-125)

Kupp has had at least five catches in 4 out of the first 5 games this season not counting last week’s atrocity against San Francisco. Goff will find him early and often, expect this to hit with plenty of time to spare in the game.


NFL Week 7 Bets – Part 2

JAX +7.5 over LAC

Simple as this: the Chargers aren’t nearly good enough to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone besides maybe the Jets. This will be a one score game and an easy win.

TB -3 over LV

We were lucky to get this line when it first dropped, but with the offensive line issues plaguing the Raiders heading into this game, Brady and the Bucs will cruise to an easy victory.

Don’t let the Raiders victory over the Chiefs fool you, it was a rivalry game against the defending champs where they played a perfect game. Bucs by a touchdown.

Bears/Rams over 46

This feels like a Monday night offensive explosion for the Rams coming up. The Bears will do enough to keep it close, so the over is the play on this game. Expect the game to be played in the mid to high 20s, cruising to an easy win on the over.


World Series Game 3 Bet and Player Props

Dodgers -1.5 (+120)

The Dodgers are clearly the better team, dominated Game 1, and made Game 2 close when it should have been over after the top of the 5th. They’ll have an offensive explosion tonight and easily cover the run line.

Mookie Betts Over 1.5 bases (-140)

Even at -140, this is the easiest money of the night. Betts is a batting .304 in his career against Rays starter Charlie Morton with a solid sample size of 27 plate appearances.

Justin Turner Over 1.5 bases (+120)

You can see the theme tonight, very pro Dodgers. We love the plus money here on Turner with the chance of him ripping a double or even going yard to make this an easy win.


NFL Week 7 Bets – Part 1

We enter Week 7 of the season winning at a 60% mark (18-12-1). We continue the climb to 65%-70% this week with our 6 bets, but we’ll focus on the first three of the week here.

PHI -3.5 over NYG

We were fortunate to get the Eagles at -3.5 when it first dropped, so if you’re looking at -4 or -4.5, don’t be afraid to buy the point.

Despite some poor early season performances, the Eagles are still the much better team and I expect Carson Wentz to build off his success he had against the Ravens in the second half last week. Eagles by a touchdown.

HOU +3.5 over GB

Are the Packers starting to get exposed for their weak early schedule? After their performance last week, there is certainly reason to start doubting them as a top NFC contender.

On the other hand, Houston has been playing much better the past few weeks, and this game feels like it could be decided by a field goal either way, which is why we like the Texans.

NE -2.5 over SF

Here’s an insane stat for you: The Patriots haven’t lost three games in a row since 2002. This game is simple, put your trust and money with Bill Belichick and you’ll come out a winner.


Week 6 Bets – SNF MNF

So far we’re off to a 2-0 start with the Packers and Jets pending, so let’s take a look at our final three bets of Week 6:

LAR -3.5 over SF

The 49ers are in shambles both offensively and defensively. They’ve proven this year they are nowhere the team they were last season. The Rams will cruise to a victory, likely by about a touchdown.

KC -4.5 over BUF

Both of these teams are coming off their first losses of the season after getting punched in the mouth last week. With the hype surrounding the addition of Bell, expect the Chiefs offense to be firing on all cylinders. Josh Allen and the Bills won’t be able to keep up, making this an easy cover for the Chiefs.

ARI -2.5 over DAL

Kyler Murray. Andy Dalton. Cowboys defense. Need I say more?


Alex Gordon (almost) made me cry

This may not meet the “timely” criteria of journalism, but it took a couple weeks for Alex Gordon’s retirement to set in.

I sat down and started thinking about writing the standard ode to a legend, but it didn’t feel right.

Not because Gordon isn’t a legend, because he certainly is, but because his career impacted me in ways I almost can’t explain. I’m going to try my best here.

It was a yearly tradition to head to The K with my dad for Opening Day since I was five years old. My dad was a great dad, but very busy so Royals baseball was about the only thing we bonded over.

Every year usually felt the same. Skip school, pray for an opening day win, but deep down knowing the season was likely doomed.

I mean, the team had lost over 100 games the previous three seasons. At 13 years old, the closest thing I’d seen to competence was a mediocre 83-79 2003 campaign. But things just felt different on April 2, 2007.

That’s when Alex Gordon got the call. Opening day. Some had called him the savior. The next George Brett.

The stadium was crawling with Red Sox fans (opponent that day), but nobody seemed to mind. We were all there for one reason only. And the moment set itself up better than any scriptwriter could.

First at bat for Alex Gordon. Bases loaded. Curt Schilling on the mound. Fights to a full count. Foul ball. Foul ball. Strikes out swinging.

The stadium was buzzing like I had never heard it before and never would hear it again until 2014. Everybody knows about the second standing ovation he received but what really got me is what my dad said to me: “that’s a hell of an at bat.”

That was from a man who I had never heard compliment a pro athlete striking out and haven’t since.

We then got to see him lay out his incredible career, so admirable in not just how he does things the right ways but how it seems to be who he truly is. We enjoyed the high of 2015 with arguably the most clutch home run in World Series history.

We got the storybook ending we were hoping for at the start. I was listening to sports radio a few weeks back as I pulled up to the gas station and they were interviewing Gordon and they asked about his first career at bat.

Side note, I have the worst memory ever. So I was shocked when Gordon retold the story of his first at bat exactly as I had remembered it at 13 years old. At 21, I got to see Gordon lead us to a World Series title. I’m now 26 with a beautiful wife and plans to start a family of our own soon.

Out of nowhere I felt a lump in my throat as I pulled into the gas station listening to Gordon speak about a memory that feels like it belongs to me and my father as much at it belongs to Gordon.

That memory meant more than any single player, championship, or moment could provide. I held back the happy tears and made my way inside.

I needed that on that day. Thank you sports. Thank you Alex Gordon.

Mr. FC

Week 6 NFL Bets (Non primetime games)

So it’s Week 6 eve and despite several scares it appears football is on as planned this weekend. Each week at Full Count Betting, we pick a minimum of six games we feel confident about, but every once in a while there’s a seventh we have to throw in there.

We are currently hitting at a 61% success rate, 6% higher than the so called experts. Let’s dive in to our first four picks of the week:

Early Sunday Games

We start off on Sunday with the Bengals at Colts. Although recency bias is a bitch, let’s remember the Bengals have scored 30, 23, and 33 in their previous three games before getting dismantled by Baltimore last week.

Phillip Rivers is having his usual turnover troubles to the point that people are calling for Jacoby Brissett, so this will be a tight one with Cincinnati having a much better chance to win than people are giving them. Either way, hammer CIN +8.

Our second early game is Falcons at Vikings. It’s inexplicable, but the stats show teams tend to overperform the following week after their coach gets fired. Riding this logic with the Vikings not having their most important player on offense, Dalvin Cook, the best bet here is to bank on the Falcons to find win number one or at least keep it within a field goal. The play here is ATL +3.5.

Later Sunday Games

After a strong morning start, the two games to get in on in the late afternoon is Jets at Dolphins and Packers at Bucs.

We stay with the underdogs as our algorithm likes the NYJ +8. The Dolphins showed out last week, but neither of these teams are good enough to be even close to a double digit favor. Look for a close, low-scoring game.

Perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the week is the Packers and Bucs. It could easily be argued this is the first legitimate test for each team this season, but the extra week of rest and several years of experience in the system gives Rodgers the edge over Brady, take GB -1.5.

As always, tips are accepted when we help you hit big. We are proving the validity of our algorithm and picks this season and will begin charging a small fee next year. Full Count members from this year will receive special pricing and discounts for the 2021 season for their loyalty, so feel free to reach out on twitter @itsafullcount.