Best CBB bet for Wednesday from Mr. FC – 3/2/22

I’ve got a bit of a streak going now, hitting on Baylor Monday and Dayton last night. Let’s push the winning streak to 3 in a row tonight!

Fordham (#176) +4 over UMass (#207)

The Fordham Rams 14-14 (7-9) take on the UMass Minuteman 12-16 (5-11) as 4 point underdogs as Atlantic 10 action winds down. When these two teams met two days ago, the Rams handily won the game outright by 12 points and have won 3 of their last 4 while UMass is riding a 3 game losing streak and has lost 5 of their last 7.

While Fordham can struggle on offense at times, they are one of the best defensive teams in the A10, ranking 46th in the country in AdjD while UMass comes in near the bottom at 343rd. I expect an ugly, low scoring, one possession back and forth type of game, so I’ll roll with the hotter team who just beat UMass and is getting 4 points. Let’s go Rams!

Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

Best CBB for Tuesday from Mr. FC – 3/1/22

I ended February right by hitting on the primetime matchup last night and look to keep the momentum going into March!

Dayton (#48) +2.5 over Richmond (#91)

Tonight I head out to the Atlantic 10 where the 6th place Richmond Spiders 19-10 (10-6) host the 3rd place Dayton Flyers 20-9 (12-4). Both teams have been playing well as of late with Dayton winning 8 of their last 10 and Richmond winning 7 of their last 10.

Dayton shoots, rebounds, and plays defense much better than Richmond (Dayton 25th and 42nd in FG% and 3PT FG% vs 125th and 157th for Richmond, 170th vs 274th in rebounds, and 32nd defensive rating vs 221st for Richmond). The only edge the Spiders seem to have is forcing turnovers, so as long as Dayton is able to eliminate self inflicted mistakes as they have most of the season, I like them to win outright on the road tonight so I’ll also be sprinkling the ML (+120).

Only other play so far is Kansas -6 against TCU. Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

BV’s CBB Picks- 3/1/22

I’ll keep today short as we prepare for March and start breaking down every team to the intricate details to make our brackets. If you haven’t checked out my conference tournament picks yet, go ahead, and go do that and prepare yourself for the first round of this great month in college ball.

Florida @ Vanderbilt, Florida PK

I don’t get to talk about one of my favorite teams in college ball this year very often, but the Florida Gators make the cut right as the year comes to a close. Colin Castleton is one of the most fun players in the country to watch play, leading the Gators in PPG, RPG, and BPG. Scottie Pippen Jr. is the only real thing Vanderbilt has going for them. But with Castleton shutting down the paint and guard Tyler Appleby chasing Pippen around, I think it will be challenging for Vanderbilt to get going even on their homecourt. I think the line is eve due to Florida’s struggling road record, however, they have played tougher SEC teams such as UK, A&M, Auburn, and Tennessee making it look ugly but they have beaten these ‘smaller’ teams for lack of a better word and have a marquee win early on the road over Ohio State as well.

All the picks in one place:
Dayton +2.5
Kennesaw State -4
Akron -3.5
Florida PK
USC +4.5

CBB Tourney Futures – 3/1/22

It’s March. Need I say more? The most exciting tournament in sports happens this month, but leading up to it, there are 32 automatic bids that need to be handed out and some of those tournaments kicked off yesterday and some start over the next couple days. Starting with the conferences starting their tourneys between 2/28 and 3/2, I will give a little blurb on every team I think will win their conference tournament as the brackets get released. I’ll also be giving some value picks if you’d like to throw a couple dollars on the longshots because, of course, it’s March.

Atlantic Sun- Jacksonville St +165

First in the ASUN West, second overall technically only to Liberty. Jacksonville State has been a great team all season finishing 13-3 in conference play and is on the longest win streak going into the conference tournament. They are coming in looking to end Liberty’s reign as they have won the last 3 bids from this conference but JState is not a regular. They have spent the last 18 years in the Ohio Valley Conference and have already beaten Liberty on the road this season. Behind good guard play and a consistent defense, I expect the Gamecocks to get it done.

Big South- Winthrop +220

Winthrop is the most fun team in the conference, they score a lot and have a very fast paced offense. Longwood is having an incredible year and are the favorite going in. However, the Eagles have 3 players averaging in double figures, all with end of year experiencing clinching this title the last 2 years. They have also rattled off 8 straight victories heading into this and are surely looking to show the Big South that this is still their conference.

Horizon- Northern Kentucky University +400 (Oakland +650)

If you like Mid-Major basketball you should tune into this tournament. It’s a homer pick for me but the NKU Norse are heating up at the right time and there is great value in the Norse. Anyone could win this tournament, as Cleveland State is the odds on favorite, Purdue Fort Wayne has 9 straight wins, NKU is the 3 seed with 12 wins in their last 14, only losing to Detroit in those 14. Behind tremendous backcourt talent and depth plus experience up front with smaller forwards Adrian Nelson and Trevon Faulkner, the Norse will fight. Oakland I still think is the most talented and streakiest team in the conference and as the 5 seed at +650 I think those are great odds as well.

Northeast- Bryant -105

Bryant or Wagner, flip a coin. Wagner is +210 if that’s where you want to fly, they have lost 3 of their last 5, one of those to Bryant. Bryant is 11-1 at home and as long as they are in the tournament as the #1, it will run through their building. I also tend to gravitate towards mid-major teams that have played high level talent regardless of losing to them and Bryant has played Clemson, Rhode Island, UC, and Houston this season and know what these teams bring to the table.

OVC- Murray State -175 (Morehead +900)

It’s hard to put your money anywhere else. Murray State has won 18 games in a row and has not lost a game in this conference. They are ranked 22 in the AP Polls right now and people expect them to be a fun team in the Big Dance. If you insist on putting your money elsewhere, I think Morehead is the bet. 3rd in the conference at +900 is great value, one of the only teams in the conference to have a .500+ away record and was also the only team to scare Murray State where they had a tie ball game with 36 seconds to play.

Patriot- Colgate -210 (Navy +500)

Colgate is the odds on favorite and the best team in this conference. They are 17th in assists per game in the country and therefore score a lot and have a highly efficient offense, they were a popular upset favorite last year in the big dance and they return a lot of those players. They have won 12 straight and play on their home court where they have lost 1 game all season. Again, if you insist on going elsewhere, Navy is the clear #2 in the conference. They have an 11-4 away record and are a consistently good defensive team allowing only 58.8 PPG.

Best CBB bet for Monday from Mr. FC – 2/28/22

Baylor -2 (#3) over Texas (#14)

Happy last day of February! If you’ve been reading, you know I typically like to focus on the mid majors to find the most value, but with a small slate and nothing jumping out at me, I’m going with the biggest game of the night, the Baylor Bears heading into Texas to take on the Longhorns.

Baylor 24-5 (12-4) is a half game behind Kansas (12-3) for 1st place in the Big 12, while Texas 21-8 (10-6) is locked into the 4 seed. I know this feels like a classic trap game for Baylor coming off their huge home win against Kansas, but I feel like that’s why we’re getting this line rather than something closer to 4 or 5 which would make me nervous.

With the Big 12 regular season title hanging in the balance and Baylor looking to add a top road win to their resume to make a final push towards a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament, I don’t foresee any type of letdown or slow play out of the gate from the Bears. They also handled the Longhorns with ease back on February 12th with a 17 point win (80-63).

Both of these teams are solid defensively, with Baylor ranking 19th in the nation with Texas coming in at 18th in defensive rating. However, the Bears have the edge offensively, ranking 29th vs 95th in offensive rating and 45th vs 131st in FG%. They also rebound and move the ball much better than Texas, ranking 84th vs 269th in rebounding and 19th vs 169th in assists.

With Baylor already taking care of Texas with ease just a few weeks back, the Bears playing for their Big 12 title hopes, and their edge offensively over the Longhorns, I’m rolling with Baylor to win and cover to end February strong and start the week out right!

Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

Best CBB bet for Friday from Mr. FC – 2/25/22

So my win streak ended at 5 yesterday, as Wagner was leading by 9 at half but imploded in the 2nd half and ended up losing in OT. One of the stranger games I’ve seen but oh well, let’s start a new streak tonight!

Princeton (#113) -7.5 over Harvard (#214)

It’s Friday night so back to the Ivy League I go! If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, so I’m looking to improve my record to 4-0 in the Brainiac league. This is a much anticipated matchup for both teams, as it’s the first time they’ll play in over two years while Princeton 19-5 (9-2) looks to tie Yale atop the Ivy League standings.

Princeton is riding a 4 game winning streak and are 8-2 in their last 10. The Tigers are an absolute wagon at home, posting a 12-1 record so far this season. Harvard is 5-5 in their last 10, are 4-6 on the road this season, and their best conference win is against Cornell (#200) in a five point home victory on Saturday.

As I mentioned in my post last Friday when we hit on Princeton, there aren’t many teams in the country that move the ball and shoot as well as the Tigers do. They rank 13th and 16th in the country in FG% and 3PT FG% (while Harvard is 234th and 196th) and 17th in assists (while Harvard is 289th). They also rebound well and take care of the basketball, ranking 67th and 35th in turnovers while Harvard sits at 193rd and 141st.

With so much being on the line for the top spot in the Ivy League and the Tigers being at home, I’m rolling with Princeton to start my weekend off great once again and cover tonight! Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

Best CBB bet for Thursday from Mr. FC – 2/24/22

And the train keeps on rollin! As expected, Davidson destroyed Duquesne by 24 as 8.5 point favorites, moving my win streak to 5 in a row with 6 straight days in the green. BV followed up his 5-1 Tuesday with a 7-2 Wednesday, so safe to say we’re hot over here at FCB. As usual, I head to the smaller conferences (Northeast in this case) to find the most value and hopefully move this streak to 6 in a row!

Wagner (#129) -11.5 over FDU (#349)

The 19-3 (15-1) Wagner Seahawks, who sit atop the Northeast conference standings, take on the last place Fairleigh Dickinson Knights 3-20 (4-12) to kick off college basketball action tonight at 5 PM CST. According to KenPom, there are only 9 teams worse than FDU in all of college basketball. When these two teams met about a month back, Wagner cruised to a 95-64 victory.

FDU has lost 10 of their last 12 with their average margin of defeat being 13.5 points, all against much lesser teams than Wagner. Wagner has won 9 of their last 10, are 9-2 on the road, and are still looking to clinch the conference with the Bryant Bulldogs right on their heels (14-2), so they obviously have much more to play for late in the season here tonight.

The discrepancy between these two teams in nearly every category is staggering (Wagner 40th in FG% vs FDU 333rd, 96th in rebounding vs 274th, 86th in assists vs 276th, 29th in steals vs 178th, 76th in offensive rating vs 340th, 19th in defensive rating vs 348th). With all these factors in play, recent history, and Wagner’s previous blowout of FDU, I’m rolling with the Seahawks tonight to move my win streak to 6!

Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

BV’s CBB Picks – 2/23/22

Okay okay, had a great day yesterday, I was due. Now we’re gonna see if we’re hot! Got a ton of good picks, I’m either confident or there’s some trappy lines. But whatever it is, let’s go and make some money on a Wednesday.

Wyoming/Colorado State, Wyoming +6.5

A name you may not have heard yet, Graham Ike. Wyoming’s Graham Ike is having a phenomenal season averaging 21 points and 9 rebounds and coming off an 11/11 27 point performance as well. Hunter Maldonado is also a Wyoming Cowboy who is a 6’7 guard who averages 20, 5.5, and 6.5. This duo is hitting their stride at the right time. They have won 6 of their last 7 and lead this astounding defensive squad. They have already beaten this Colorado State team who are coming off a 21 point defeat to UNLV. The Mountain West Conference has been a fun one this year and this game should follow suit. However, 6.5 points is way too many to a team that has hot weapons, a staggering defense, and only lost two games by more than 3 points.

All the picks in one place:
Creighton +5
Duke -5
Providence -1
Wake -3
Troy -4.5
Fordham -3.5
Davidson -8.5
Samford +6
Wyoming +6.5

Best CBB bet for Wednesday from Mr. FC – 2/23/22

The winning streak moved to 4 yesterday as Yale took care of business and covered, also making it my fifth straight day in the green. Let’s keep it rolling tonight in the Atlantic 10!

Davidson -8.5 (#54) over Duquesne (#276)

Too easy? It feels like it, but still couldn’t pass it up. Davidson is 22-4 (12-2) and 1st in the A10 while Duquesne is at the bottom of the conference, sitting at 6-19 (1-12). In their meeting on Valentine’s day, Davidson still won 72-61 as 14 point favorites even with them shooting well below their season average and Duquesne being above theirs.

When looking at the season numbers, the gap between these two teams is staggering. Davidson is 12th in the country in FG% (48.5%) and 7th in 3PT FG% (39.1%), while Duquesne is near the bottom of the country at 346th (39.8%) and 318th (30.7%). The two teams are pretty even when it comes to rebounding and eliminating turnovers, but Davidson moves the ball much better averaging 14.8 (69th) assists per game versus Duquesne’s average of 9.6 (354th).

In Davidson’s last game, they destroyed a solid Saint Louis (#59) team by 21 while Duquesne is riding a 12 game losing streak, including losing to St. Bonaventure (#84) by 26 and George Washington (#226) by 21 in their two most recent games. The change of venue doesn’t worry me as Davidson plays just as well on the road as at home (8-1 away record) while home court advantage doesn’t seem to do much for Duquesne (3-9 home record).

All signs point to Davidson to win by double digits tonight, so I’m rolling with the Wildcats to cover with ease. Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

BV’s CBB Picks – 2/22/22

It’s 2/22/22 so if you make your picks at 2:22, they have to hit. You’re either hot or you’re due and I am indeed due for a good day. We have some good matchups tonight as conference play enters its final stretch. Let’s keep our heads on straight, lock in, and win some coin!

Arkansas/Florida, Arkansas ML -110

This one comes down to two things. How much you value Florida’s win over Auburn and if you believe this is a trap game for Arkansas. I think they play hand in hand in my head. Auburn has lost to three teams this year; these are two of them. Arkansas has won 11 of their last 12 games, and that loss was a one point defeat at Alabama. Florida was struggling leading up to Auburn with 2 losses and some close wins to below average SEC squads. Arkansas as a deep, experienced, defensively oriented team, I think it will be hard for them to ignore what the Gators did last game and will focus on Saturday’s Kentucky game tomorrow after a big win tonight to humble this Florida team. You might even be able to wait a couple hours and get the Razorbacks as +1 if you want to watch the lines as well.

All the picks in one place:
Arkansas ML
Charleston -1
Iowa -6
Miami -4
Akron -7.5
Boise State -2