MLB two team parlay (+301) – 4/30/21

HOU ML over TB -125, KC ML over MIN +123 (+301)

We hit big Wednesday, missed big yesterday thanks to a three run pinch hit home run for St. Louis, and now we’re finishing up the month today as we sit at 46-43 (+12.19u).

Today, the favorite I see the most value on is the Astros over the Rays. After their slow start, Houston most recently took 3 of 4 from a pair of division rivals, the Angels and Mariners. The Rays on the other hand just split a 4 games series with the A’s after losing 2 of 3 to the Blue Jays.

Over that most recent 7 game stretch, the Rays managed to only score 17 runs (2.4 runs per game), while the Astros offense has been heating up after their surprisingly slow start. Starting for Houston is Lance McCullers (52.3 rolling game score), who has been great in 3 of his 4 starts but has an inflated ERA due to the one bad start.

The Rays send out lefty Ryan Yarbrough (50.5 rolling game score) to make his sixth start of the season. He has been hot or cold, either shutting teams down or getting knocked around for five or six runs. With the way the offenses are trending and the slight advantage Houston has in the pitching matchup, I love the value of -125 on the Astros here.

Next, one of the teams I’ve profited the most off of this month, the Kansas City Royals, opens up a three game set with the Minnesota Twins tonight.

The plus money is too good to pass up in my opinion with youngster Brady Singer on the mound, who has no hit stuff every time he pitches and dominated his past three starts, only giving up 2 earned runs over 18 innings while striking out 22.

The Royals offense has been consistent throughout the season, ranking in the top 5 in the AL in runs per game (4.5), while the Twins are the third worst team in the AL in runs allowed per game (4.7).

The Royals face Twins starter Michael Pineda, who the Pirates knocked around in his last start where he didn’t make it out of the 5th inning while giving up 5 runs. KC has the better starting pitching, bullpen, and offense so I expect them to roll the Twins and keep extending their lead in the AL Central.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+229) – 4/29/21

PHI ML over STL -123, BOS ML over TEX -123 (+229)

We absolutely nailed it yesterday, hitting our parlay and going a perfect 4-0 (Royals ML, Rays ML, Angels ML, Parlay) to profit 6.28 units in a single day! Not too shabby. We’re back at it today staying hot with another two team parlay on this slow Thursday with two favorites I strongly believe should be closer to -150.

First, we have a day game between the Phillies and Cardinals in St. Louis to wrap up a four game series where the Cards are looking to salvage a split and the Phillies are trying to take 3 of 4 and get moving in the right direction.

The Cardinals are averaging less than three runs over their past eight games and have the tall task of facing Phillies ace Aaron Nola (58.5 rolling game score), who threw a complete game shutdown against them on April 18th two starts ago while only allowing two hits and striking out 10.

St. Louis sends out their back end starter, Kwang Hyun Kim (51.5 rolling game score), to take on Nola today. He has yet to make it out of the 6th inning in either of his starts this season and gave up five hits and three runs in only 3 innings pitched during his season debut on April 17th against Philadelphia.

With this pitching matchup and no other advantages jumping out for the Cardinals, I love the odds on the Phillies to cruise to victory behind Nola today while roughing up Kim early.

Next, the Red Sox travel to Texas to take on the Rangers tonight to start a four game set that will conclude on Sunday. The Red Sox of course got off to a blistering hot start, then came back down to Earth a little in the middle of April, and are now picking up steam again as they’ve won 3 in a row.

Boston is 8-1 on the road so far this season and the Rangers are the second worst team in the AL after the Tigers by a pretty wide margin. With the pitching matchup being Martin Perez for the Red Sox and Kyle Gibson for the Rangers, I could see this being a high scoring affair. In that case, I have all the confidence in the world that Boston can outscore Texas.

My belief is that Texas is being overvalued here due to pitching matchup and small sample size as Perez currently possesses a 5.71 ERA while Gibson’s is 2.30, despite the both being below average to average starters.

As I always talk about, value is the biggest thing I’m looking for and with only 10 games on the docket for today, these are the two I feel the best about.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+185) – 4/28/21

TB ML over OAK -163, LAA ML over TEX -131 (+185)

We hit on MIL ML -158 (+1.27u) and HOU ML -181 (+1.11u) yesterday, but the Mets kept us from having a monster day falling to the Red Sox by a score of 2-1, making us 2-2 (-0.63u). Bouncing back today with a two teamer of favorites that I love the value on, starting with the Rays over the A’s.

The Rays ace Tyler Glasnow (56.0 rolling game score) takes the mound against Oakland lefty Cole Irvin (49.1 rolling game score). Glasnow is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the league as he dominated through his first four starts, only giving up 2 runs over 24.2 innings while allowing 9 hits and striking out 36.

His most recent start he ran into a little trouble with the Blue Jays but still managed to make it through six innings. Today, he’ll return back to his dominant form against a slumping A’s offense that has managed a meager 6 runs over their past 3 games. Irvin has found success this season against the weakest lineups in the league (Detroit and Baltimore), so I trust the Rays offense to produce enough to cruise to victory.

The A’s on the other hand are being overvalued due to their ridiculous 13 game winning streak against mostly poor competition. They started the season 1-7 after playing their first eight games against the Dodgers and Astros. After taking two from Houston to improve to 3-7, the A’s swept the Diamondbacks, Tigers, Twins, and took the first two games from the Orioles in their weekend series before losing on Sunday.

I give the A’s props for what they were able to do because winning 13 in a row is tough to do in the MLB no matter who you’re playing, but with the amount of talent (or lack thereof) on their roster, their regression to who they actually are (the first 8 games) is coming.

Next, the Rangers and Angels finish up a three game series tonight in Arlington after splitting the first two. Alex Cobb takes the mound for the Angels while the Rangers will send out young righty Dane Dunning.

Cobb has struggled a bit in his first three starts against solid offensive teams (White Sox, Royals, Astros), but has still managed to eat up innings and has given up 3 earned runs in each start. Tonight is a great opportunity for him to get right against an inferior Rangers lineup that doesn’t have nearly the firepower he’s dealt with so far this season.

On the flip side, Dunning was great in his first 3 starts against the Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles, but got absolutely blew up by the White Sox in his most recent start. He didn’t make it out of third inning, giving up 8 hits, 2 walks, and 5 runs in 2.2 innings.

Dunning now has the task of facing the Angels’ dangerous lineup, which is currently 4th in the AL averaging nearly 5 runs per game. With the track record mentioned above regarding the starting pitchers and the Angels being the much better overall team, I love the value of -131 on the Angels to cash us out tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB three team parlay (+328) – 4/27/21

NYM ML over BOS -145, MIL ML over MIA -158, HOU ML over SEA -181 (+328)

We had our first big miss of the season yesterday as the Twins blew an early lead and lost in extras and the Yankees got shut down by MATT HARVEY, but we were due and are ready to bounce back strong today!

Today, there are three favorites I love the value on, starting with the Mets opening up a short two game series at home against the Red Sox. The Mets will be facing righty Garrett Richards, who has struggled mightily so far this season (0-2 6.48 ERA in four starts.

The Mets offense has underperformed so far out of the gate, but they’ve picked up a little steam the past few series and I expect that to continue as they roll past the overvalued Red Sox for leg 1 of the parlay.

Next, Adrian Houser and the Brewers take on Daniel Castano and the Marlins for game two of a three game set after Miami blew them out 8-0 last night. I expect a strong bounce back performance from the Brewers offense tonight after facing one of the Marlins’ top pitchers last night and another quality start from Houser like they’ve been getting so far this season.

Castano has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in his two starts and Miami has one of the worst bullpens, only converting 4 out of their 11 save opportunities. Even if the Brew Crew aren’t able to jump on Castano early and grab the lead, I have faith they will still come out on top at the end behind Houser and late runs if necessary.

Finally, to (hopefully) finish things up we have the Astros over the Mariners. This has been the most surprising division in baseball so far with the A’s win streak putting them in first at 15-8, followed by the Mariners at 13-10.

The expected first place Astros sit in 4th place but only 3.5 games back at 11-11, and I see them continuing their climb back to the top tonight and starting a winning streak against their division rival.

Tonight, the Astros have their second best pitcher on the mound after Greinke according to FiveThirtyEight, Cristian Javier. Javier has dominated this season and in his young career, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA over three starts. Over his past two starts, he’s given up zero runs, 6 total hits, while striking out 16.

On the other side, the Mariners send out lefty Marco Gonzales (1-2 6.04 ERA), who got blown up in his first two starts but has righted the ship in his past two. However, he’s facing an Astros lineup that is finally living up to its potential, scoring 36 runs over their last 5 games (7.2 runs per game).

Houston’s big six (Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Gurriel, Correa) are all hitting over .300 now with the exception of Correa, who sits at a respectable .282 after his slow start. Behind a dominant performance from Javier and some timely hitting, I love the Astros in this spot to finish up the final leg of our parlay.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+190) – 4/26/21

MIN ML over CLE -126, NYY ML over BAL -163 (+190)

The Twins are one of the biggest disappointments so far in this young season, going 7-13 while having some covid issues.

After having April 17th-19th off, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 after getting swept by the A’s and losing 2 of 3 to the Pirates but I like the odds on the Twins to start turning around their season today behind Jose Berrios against the Indians.

Besides the Tigers (who only scored 3 runs total over the weekend while getting beatdown by the Royals), the Indians have the least dangerous lineup in the AL ranking towards the bottom averaging less than 4 runs per game.

Berrios is the best Twins pitcher in my opinion (55.8 rolling game score), so I like him to shut down the Indians and for Minnesota’s offense to get right against Zach Plesac, who has given up 6 runs in each of his last two starts.

Next, the Yankees spoiled last Friday’s parlay as they responded with 4 homers to beat the Indians, so I’m not making the same mistake again. After taking 3 out of 4 from Cleveland, their offense is finally starting to live up to its potential and is showing a decent track record over the past week now.

They open up a series tonight against the Orioles and Matt Harvey, who’s biggest weakness has been avoiding the long ball.

This bodes well for the Yankees lineup, as I see them continuing to heat up and rough up Harvey for several early runs, so I’m not too concerned about what they get from young righty Deivi Garcia, who’s making his season debut.

With their offense getting right and Harvey on the mound, I was expecting close to -200 for the Yankees ML, so I love the value here even as a heavy favorite.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+313) – 4/23/21

KC ML over DET -117, CLE ML over NYY +123 (+313)

After taking Monday off, we hit on Tuesday to profit +6.05u going 3-0 and came so close yesterday after nailing the MIA/SF under but missing on the Dodgers ML as their offense stayed cold and they fell to the Padres 3-2 making us 1-2 (-1.1u) yesterday.

For the season, we now sit at 31-30 but more importantly, +11.22u. People frequently complain about betting baseball as “it’s too random from day to day” but that doesn’t mean there still isn’t value on a few games each day, which is how we profit in the long term. Today, we love the value on two AL Central teams, the Royals and the Indians.

Both games start at 6:10 central time tonight, so let’s start with the Royals and Tigers in Detroit. The 10-7 Royals have continued to be one of the most undervalued teams by Vegas after a solid offseason where they addressed needs in the outfield and at 1st base, as well as bolstering their starting rotation and bullpen with many young arms.

The Royals offense is starting to hit its stride, averaging 5.67 runs over their past 3 games while the Tigers lineup is the worst in the American League, averaging a meager 3.37 runs per game so far.

KC also has the edge in the pitching matchup with Mike Minor (53.4 rolling game score) in a great opportunity for a get right game facing this Tigers team, while Detroit sends out their 4th best starter Casey Mize (47.2 rolling game score).

I expect a solid outing from Minor and the Royals offense to stay hot behind Soler, Santana, and Perez and the better team should come out on top with ease, so -117 is incredible odds here in my opinion.

The Indians fell to the Yankees 6-3 last night, but one decent night of offense bolstered by some spotty defense by Cleveland isn’t going to sell me on this Yankees team yet.

They have a slight edge in the pitching matchup, but that only helps so much if you’re unable to generate offense as we’ve seen so many times this year with the Yankees as the Tigers are the only team worse than them in the AL in runs per game (3.61).

While I’m admittedly not as confident on this game as the first, once I saw the plus money of over 120, it was too good of value for me to pass up with how this Yankees team has struggled so far this season.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+207) – 4/22/21

MIA/SF Under 8 -105, LAD ML over SD -175 (+207)

We hit big yesterday and had a clean 3-0 sweep (+6.05u), and we’re back at it again with two games we like the value on.

The Marlins and Giants both leave the east cost and head west after the Giants got walked off by the Phillies on Wednesday and the Marlins beat the Orioles in Miami.

The Giants have gone under 8 in 12 of their 18 games, while the Marlins have in 10 of their 17. The under hit 2 out of the 3 games when these teams met last weekend.

Giants starter Aaron Sanchez hasn’t gone deep into games this season but he’s been efficient, only giving up 4 runs over three starts so far this year. Marlins lefty Daniel Castano made his debut against San Fran last weekend, only giving up three hits and one run over five innings.

We love the near even money value here, especially with the somewhat quick turnaround/travel and grind of the season starting to wear on teams.

Next, the Dodgers have yet to lose with Walker Buehler on the mound or at home, so I’m going to continue to ride with it here against Ryan Weathers and the Padres.

Los Angeles has a strong edge in the pitching matchup (57.2 vs 48.5 rolling game score) and their dangerous lineup is due for a breakout performance after a much needed off day. They’ve been averaging 2 runs per game over their past 4, much lower than their season average of 5.22.

Until something changes, if I can get better than -200 on the Dodgers at home with one of their top 3 arms on the mound, I’m taking that value.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+250) – 4/21/21

WSH ML over STL -160, ATL ML over NYY +115 (+250)

We nailed the Angels game yesterday but an implosion in the 8th inning by the Phillies bullpen kept our parlay from hitting. Bouncing back today with one plus money bet with great value and the favorite I feel most confident in.

After a rocky first start, Max Scherzer has returned to his normal form over his past two starts only giving up 5 hits and one run over 13 innings while striking out 15.

The ace gets an extremely favorable matchup against the worst starter in the Cardinals rotation as of now, Carlos Martinez, who is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA on the young season (46.5 rolling game scores vs. Scherzer’s 58.8).

The Nationals weakness so far this season has been scoring runs, ranking 26th in the league averaging 3.6 runs per game.

With the struggling Martinez on the mound and backed by Scherzer, this is a great opportunity for the offense to start to heat up while their ace puts zeroes up on the board behind them to scratch out a victory over the Cardinals.

Next, I was expecting the Braves to be around even money against the Yankees, so the +125 value was too good to pass up.

Corey Kluber is on the mound for the Yankees, who hasn’t made it past the 4th inning so far this season in his three starts since the MLB started cracking down on pitchers using foreign substances on baseballs.

Coincidence? Maybe. But still interesting to see from someone who has been so dominant in the past. He’ll be facing the second best starter on the Braves, Ian Anderson, who so far has stringed together three decent but not amazing starts.

With the pitching matchup being a wash in my opinion, I’ll take the value on the Braves here as the Yankees offense has showed no signs of breaking out and there’s nothing to suggest the Yankees will be able to tame the Braves top 10 offense for a second night in a row.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+159) – 4/20/21

PHI ML over SF -147, LAA ML over TEX -184 (+159)

We were initially going to be on the Tigers and Angels for +177, but are switching it up to the Phillies and Angels due to the cancellation.

The Giants are being overvalued here due to their hot 10-6 start despite being last in the leagues in runs per game (3.19). Their winning formula obviously has been winning low scoring games, but that will be tough with today’s pitching matchup.

San Francisco is trotting out their worst starting pitcher, Logan Webb (46.4 rolling game score), against the Phillies second best arm, Zack Wheeler (56.4 rolling game score).

The Phillies have a much better lineup than the Giants despite their slow offensive start, so I expect early runs and a strong outing from Wheeler to give the Phillies the victory and lift them above .500 on the season.

I was expecting -200 or above for the Angels against the Rangers with Ohtani on the mound, so this value is too good to pass up in my opinion.

The Rangers are still one of the worst teams in the American League and have one of their worst starting pitchers on the mound, so it’s tough for me to see a scenario where they generate enough offense with their lineup against Ohtani to outscore and beat the Angels.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+236) – 4/16/21

CLE ML over CIN +103, MIL ML over PIT -153 (+236)

Yesterday, the Twins took care of business but unfortunately the Rays lost in extra innings to Texas. We’ve had a lot of splits the past few days and now sit at 22-22 (+7.17u) on the young MLB season thanks to several parlay hits.

Today, we start out with two somewhat surprising teams near the top of their divisions, the Indians and Reds both at 7-5. Today’s pitching matchup has two below average starters facing off, Logan Allen for the Indians (46 rolling game score) and Jeff Hoffman for the Reds (47.2 rolling game score).

The Reds got off to a hot start due to their offense, but have since lost 4 out of their last 5 games as it’s cooled down significantly. On the contrary, the Indians mainly have been successful this season due to strong pitching and timely hitting.

While this certainly isn’t the Indians offense of the past couple years, they still have enough big bats in the middle of their lineup that can generate runs quickly, so I love the plus money value on Cleveland today.

Next, we have the Brewers at home kicking off a 3 game series with the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh is playing solid ball right now for a team expected to lose well over 100 games, as they split a 4 game series with the Padres after taking 2 out of 3 from the Cubs.

Both starters (JT Brubaker for the Pirates and Adrian Houser for the Brewers) have pitched decent in both of their starts so far this season but haven’t made it past the 5th inning, meaning this could turn into a bullpen game early.

With the Brewers having the much better overall offensive lineup and bullpen by a mile, they should have no problem taking care of business against the Pirates tonight even if it requires some late inning runs.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.

Mr. FC