Brewer’s Super Thursday Thanksgiving Deluxe Holiday Special

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Here at FCB we are beyond grateful for everyone that rides with us along the way, whether we are winning all of the money or losing it. Every Thursday I give my props. That doesn’t change no matter where I’m at what I’m doing or who’s celebrating what. THREE GAMES TODAY.  PICKED THE PROPS. LET’S GO. With that said, eat some sweet potatoes and turkey and hopefully a pumpkin pie or two and watch some football with winning on your mind! Let’s win some coin

Guide to Thanksgiving Day

LIONS/BEARS (1230 EST)

Lions +3.5

Fire Nagy. On Thanksgiving Day after two close losses to two much tougher opponents, the Lions have been set up to win their first game of the season on Turkey Day. What a story it would be for Dan Campbell. Although this team is pretty terrible talent wise. The Bears are not  a huge step up considering their playbook is written in another language. Lions ML also at +122 if you want to ride the straight bet

Darnell Mooney TD +130

Has the most receiving touchdowns for the bears this year. He is going to have to get involved if the Bears want any chance at keeping their head coach today. Mooney has two TD’s in his last 2, why not keep the streak against one of the worst defenses in the league

TJ Hockenson O43.5

He’s gotten over this mark 6 of 10 games, also Jared Goff’s seemingly favorite target. With Campbell calling plays it has been very run centric lately in this offense but I think Swift will tear up the Bears and open up the play action.

D’Andre Swift TD +105

The points have to come from somewhere. I haven’t gotten to say that in a while. If the Lions score at all today, I would be surprised if I either A) knew the person’s name or B) it is not D’Andre Swift. He has been the center of the offense in a run heavy scheme. Take plus money all day.

DALLAS/LAS VEGAS (430 EST)

Cowboys -7.5

I don’t know if I like this line, but I picked the other two so why not. The Raiders haven’t looked good since the Ruggs thing happened honestly. Losses to the Giants, Chiefs, and Bengals who are all right in their wheelhouse to beat (with the exception of the Chiefs with hindsight). The Cowboys have had a great season are in a good position to get good seeding. With their star receivers out today I think they put the gas on and make sure they put this one in the books as a W with a long week ahead before their next one.

Hunter Renfrow TD +210

Most receiving touchdowns on the team I believe and 2 in his last 3 games. He also just eats receptions with at least 6 in his last 8 games and 7 in 3 of them. He is always open and I see him finding the end zone, with also a very high chance Desean Jackson gets in the end zone at +550.

Dallas D/ST +430

The Defense takes risks and Derek Carr does too. There’s always one defensive touchdown on Thanksgiving, I wish I had a confirmed stat for that, but I do not. But it sure seems like it and if there’s going to be one why not in this game. Cowboys have the most interceptions in the league and I can see Diggs housing one at the +430.

Michael Gallup O55.5

With CeeDee listed as a maybe right now, Gallup is the #1 receiver walking into thanksgiving against a defense that hasn’t been able to get their head on straight lately. Michael Gallup should be one of the bright spots in the passing game with CeeDee playing or not but if he’s not in this number should be an easy one.

BILLS/SAINTS (820 EST)

Buffalo -5.5

Bills by a milli with Kamara out. The Saints will struggle to score points and the Bills will bounce back after a brutal loss on the road to the Colts. Past couple weeks they’ve laid an egg and then been way better when they recoup and look at the tape.

Dawson Knox TD +270

Dawson Knox is such a dope dude that I expect to see eating a Turkey Leg on TV after the game today. This guy eats touchdowns for dinner however and is very due for one. The Saints are very questionable against tight ends and Knox is still seeing the targets with 10 in their last game.

Mark Ingram TD +145

Alvin Kamara Out. Mark Ingram In the End Zone. I think that’s simple enough. Mark Ingram has been much better back in his old system and there is no doubt he should be getting touches near the goal line. Even if the Saints are only in the red zone a couple times.

Josh Allen O30.5 Rushing

He has reached this 30.5 in 6 of the 10 games. He usually gets out of the pocket a couple times a game and gets a couple yards. He has been most of their run game with Singletary and Moss being more receiving backs anyways. The Saints have been a giant question mark and it depends on what team walks on the field today, but Josh Allen scrambling should be a guarantee it just depends on how many times the Saints can get into that backfield.

Thanksgiving NFL bets from Mr. FC – 11/25/21

It’s that time of year and to kick things off we’re being blessed with…. the Bears and Lions? Even better, the Andy Dalton led Bears and Tim Boyle (maybe) led Lions! Going to try to not overthink this play too much since I have no idea how the actual game will go…

Bears @ Lions Under 41.5

Two bad teams led by even worse quarterbacks now that will do everything they can to establish the run and win a low scoring, ugly, defensive battle. These Thursday/Thanksgiving games can get ugly anyways, but this one is shaping up to be all time stinker. Aside from some crazy special teams or defensive TDs, I love the odds on these offenses playing in the teens (MAYBE low 20’s for the winner) to secure the first W of Turkey Day.

Edit: Goff is starting but doesn’t change my pick, still like the under.

Cowboys -7.5 over Raiders

I was hesitant at first to take the Cowboys as the 7.5 feels like a lot given that Dak and the offense has laid an egg in two of the past three weeks, only scoring 16 against the Broncos and 9 against the Chiefs. However, it is important to note that the Chiefs defense has been playing like one of the league’s best for the past month or so, and Steve Spagnuolo flat out outcoached the Cowboys on Sunday with his superior game plan.

This is more of a bet against the Raiders, as there in the middle of their free fall we were expecting, losing 3 games in a row by an average of nearly 18 points. Over that stretch, they’ve given up an average of 32 PPG, so this feels like another get right game for Dak and the Cowboys like the Falcons were two weeks ago.

Saints +6.5 over Bills

It’s tough to pinpoint the most head scratching team of the NFL season so far since there’s been so many unexpected upsets, but the Bills have to be near the top of that list. After taking down the Chiefs in primetime they appeared to be the next up in the AFC, but have since went 2-3, giving the Jaguars and Urban Meyer their first win of the season and getting blown out by the Colts last week while only beating the Jets and Dolphins.

I feel like this primetime matchup at home against a spiraling Bills team that has been consistently turning the ball over is exactly what this depleted Saints offense needs to get back on track and at the very least cover the spread, maybe even win the game outright.

All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

NFL spreads/totals YTD: 22-22 (+0.70u)

Mr. FC

MACtion! Tuesday Night College Football Bet – 11/23/21

So it was a bit of a sweat, but I hit once again last Tuesday on Toledo and on Wednesday on NIU in OT to win my 3rd MACtion bet in a row (4-1 overall). I’ve been betting spreads, but since I didn’t feel great about the value on either, I’ll be playing the total in the Buffalo/Ball State game.

Buffalo @ Ball State Under 59.5

To say this has been a disappointing season for both of these teams would be an understatement, as Buffalo (#121) is always expected to compete for the MAC East crown and Ball State (#97) was by far the preseason favorite to win the West. Buffalo now sits at 4-7 and Ball State isn’t much better at 5-6 as they matchup to close out their underwhelming seasons.

The main reason I like the under in this game is I expect Buffalo to come out and use their strength often and early: running the football. They average nearly 200 YPG rushing (46th in the country) and face a Ball State run defense that gives up 171.5 YPG rushing (188th in the county). Outside of them controlling the clock and limiting the number of possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams, the Bulls haven’t been world beaters on the scoreboard recently, putting up just 27 and 18 points their past two games.

On the other side, Ball State has a more well balanced offense but are only averaging 24.8 PPG (96th in the country). In their past 4 games, Ball state has mustered up 17, 29, 31 (against a horried Akron team #176), and 17. With the way both teams are trending and my lack of confidence in Ball State to stop the Buffalo run, I’m going with a MAC under even though I know that it’s a cardinal (pun intended) sin.

All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

Monday Night Football prop bets from Mr. FC NYG/TB – 11/22/21

After a solid 3-1 Sunday ATS hitting on the Bears, Chiefs, and Steelers while missing on the Packers, I’m back tonight with the Giants +11 and a couple prop bets I love the value on.

Daniel Jones over 20.5 rushing yards

Up until the past two weeks, Jones hit this with ease in five of his first seven games (27, 95, 39, 27, 9, 4, 28). Danny Dimes has shown he doesn’t hesitate to leave the pocket and take what’s given to him, and with him being under fire from the Bucs defensive rush, I see him tucking and running at least two or three times tonight to hit this.

Daniel Jones over 243.5 passing yards

If the Giants want to stay competitive in this game, it’s no secret they’re going to have to throw the ball frequently and effectively. I feel like the 11 points is a bit much although I still expect the Bucs to win outright. If the Bucs do jump out to an early lead in a strong bounce back game, Jones will be throwing 35+ times and should have no problem hitting this over. If it is a competitive game, I still think they’ll ease Barkley back into action and Jones will be able to do enough to hit this over as well.

All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

CFB Saturday Picks – 11/20/21

A new day and once again there is more money to make, an average week last week and my college basketball isn’t consistent yet with the season just starting but the only thing that’s changing here is the teams we spotlight. The only concerning thing looking out for is how the average teams are playing now that they are bowl eligible and things like that. Random factors that make teams give up or have trap games with rivalry week coming up next. Let’s. Win. The. Coins.

UTSA/UAB, UTSA -4.5 (330 EST)

MEEP MEEP! The Roadrunners, if you have not heard yet, are undefeated. What an absolute wagon they have been this year 8-2 ATS. They face UAB who has done well this season but not near the efficiency of the Roadrunners. I think this line was manipulated by a slow loss last week for UTSA over Southern Miss. But don’t get it twisted this team is tough, gritty, can run the ball, and has an outstanding pass protection that limits turnovers. It might be a challenge because they are on the road in the conference as the pressure of staying undefeated gets heavier and heavier. However, I like the fighting Meeps -4.5

Baylor/Kansas State, Baylor +1 (ML +100) (530 EST)

This one seems like a trap. 8-2 Baylor (7-3 ATS) goes to KState (6-3-1 ATS). Every trend falls in Baylor’s favor. Underdog in this matchup 5-1 last 6, Bears 7-2-1 last 10 as a road dog, Bears 4-1 last 5 overall,   12-4-1 last 17 as a straight underdog. Trends are in the Baylor Bears favor. Baylor’s run offense is just too good to slow down, I think. Kansas State has been playing well and winning because they are outscoring opponents. Baylor’s secondary is weaker which concerns me but that’s probably why the line switched from -1 Baylor to +2 Baylor. I believe the Bears get it done and take the win on the road to stay in the conversation with the big dogs.

Boise St/New Mexico, Boise St -27 (9PM EST)

Haven’t gotten to highlight my favorite field in America. Although 6-4 this year, the Broncos have played really well with substantial wins over Fresno State and BYU, and also a recognized 21-20 loss to #9 Oklahoma State. This week they take on the New Mexico Lobos who are 1-9 ATS and not a very good football team at all. The Lobos have lost by 27+ 4 times this year and I don’t see this one being much different. Boise State’s passing offense has been really good, in the Top 30 in college football and the Lobos… I can’t find a statistic for their defense. I looked up and down and cannot find a lot of their stats I assume because they are not very good, but they give up 350 yards a game, 27 points per game and are accustomed to losing. Boise in a blowout in their last home game of the season.

Bonus: Michigan State +19, Oklahoma -3, Bearcats -9.5, Syracuse +11.5, UCLA -3.5, Oregon +3

ATL/NE TNF Props – 11/18/21

An interesting game, a raging Patriots team, one of the longer win streaks in the league right now against a hot or not Falcons team. I am beyond confused on the Falcons team other than the fact that them having 4 wins is all because of Matt Ryan. Their defense is bad, their receivers are running thin because they had to put one at running back because of their lack of talent there too. With a win, this confusing team would be .500. Cheers to Matty Ice and on the other hand ‘Mama, there goes that man’ Mac Jones.


Rhamondre Stevenson TD +130

Rhamondre is such a cool name, and he has been playing great in the absence of the New England backs. Brandon Bolden is questionable and leaning towards not playing and Damien Harris is still working on his recovery and will probably be in a 50/50 role because although he has not done anything to lose his job, Stevenson has been great and is winning this job by the game. He went 10 for 62 when he filled in and then 20 for 100 in his full game with 2 TDs a couple catches to add on. Big touchdown for Stevenson tonight.

Mac Jones U252.5 Pass Yards -110

5 of Mac’s last 6 not only have they won but he has gone under this 252.5 mark. In their winning streak the defense has been excellent, and their run game has been great. With dual backs or three backs playing well there isn’t much need for Mac to throw more than 20-30 times a game. The one game he went over this 252, he only had 300 and scored 54 points against the Jets so I don’t see anything wild happening tonight.

Hunter Henry TD +195

A true red zone threat, even though he may only catch 2 or 3 balls a game, you can count on one to be in the end zone. 7 Touchdowns in the last 7 games. You guys know how well Tight End bets go on Thursday Nights. No reason to not bet on this one, especially after he had two touchdowns in last weeks game and the Falcons defense is questionable.

Matt Ryan O3.5 Rush Yards +104

My weekly fun bet, Matt Ryan to rush for 4 or more yards. He can do it, it has happened before. Three times exactly. And he’s gone for 3 yards two more times. I believe. He just needs one decent run where he gets chased put of the pocket. The three teams he has gone for more than 4 yards the defenses were average and the Patriots are a tad above average but in the end you never know. Plus money on 4 yards is a hit.

MACtion! Wednesday Night Football Bet – 11/17/21

So we hit again on Toledo last night, pushing me to 3-1 in MACtion this season and 5-2 overall in college football ATS/totals. Despite them being my only loss so far this season in the MAC, I’m going back to Northern Illinois (#94) tonight to cover on the road against Buffalo (#117).

NIU -1.5 over Buffalo

NIU has been the surprise team of the MAC so far this season, being predicted to finish at the bottom of the West Division but currently possessing the best record in the conference at 7-3 overall and 5-1 in conference play. Their only blemish came in conference came two weeks ago against Kent State (#103) on the road, where they lost by 5 to the East Division preseason favorite.

Besides that, Northern Illinois has answered the bell at every other opportunity this year, taking down preseason West Division favorite Ball State (#86) last week, as well as quality opponents in Central Michigan (#87), Toledo (#72), and Eastern Michigan (#100). Buffalo is trending downwards, getting blown out by Miami (OH) and Bowling Green (#154) the past two weeks. With the MAC West likely on the line for them tonight with Central Michigan at Ball State, I like the Huskies to come out strong and take care of business like they have been all year and give Buffalo their 7th loss of the season.

All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

MACtion! Tuesday Night Football Bet – 11/16/21

After sweeping my props last night but missing on the Rams, I’m back at it tonight with some MACtion. I took off last Tuesday but hit on Wednesday on Toledo, and they are becoming one of my favorite teams in the country so I’m going to keep riding the wave. 2-1 YTD in MACtion.

Toledo -7 over Ohio

I love a team that can run the ball and control the game and that’s exactly what Toledo (#72) did last week against an inferior Bowling Green (#154) team, winning 49-17, and what I expect them to do again this week against Ohio (#120). Just like Bowling Green, Ohio struggles to stop the run, giving up nearly 200 yards per game (197.1 193rd in the country). Toledo is averaging nearly 180 yards per game on the ground and I expect that success to continue tonight.

Once again, Toledo has the much better defense, giving up 347 yards per game (77th in the country) and 21.5 points per game while Ohio is giving up 455 yards per game and nearly 31 points per game. I still believe that Toledo is the best team in the MAC and expect a double digit win tonight, so I’m going to keep riding the Rockets until it bites me.

All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

Tuesday Tip from Ninja – 11/16/21

OREGON (-3.5)

Started off the season 0-1 with the Hoosiers not covering last week. I believe the lock this week will be Oregon against Brigham Young tonight on ESPN. The Oregon Ducks offense has on recorded a turnover on only 13 percent of its possessions – (24th best nationally). BYU defense has forced a turnover on just 13 percent of all possessions – (338th nationally). Point is, Oregon is not going to turn the ball over at all – therefore making this -3.5 spread easy to cover at home. Take the DUCKS.

Other teams to consider betting on responsibly…

South Alabama (+23.5) 

Wichita St (-12.5)

Norfolk St (-3) 

Winthrop (-2.5)

Duke (-21.5)

Monday Night Football props – Rams/49ers

After a 3-2 Sunday against the spread (hitting on KC -2.5, GB -3, MIN +3 while missing on CLE ML and TEN -2.5), I’m finishing up Week 10 with the Rams to cover and a couple prop bets I love to go along with it.

Stafford to have more passing yards than Jimmy G -175

The past two weeks Jimmy G has won this matchup, but once I saw under -200 (likely due to Jimmy G’s recent performances) I loved the value on this play. I don’t foresee Sean McVay and Stafford laying an egg in primetime in back to back weeks after a tough showing against a good Titans defense. McVay is the king of adjustments, and I expect a big bounce back offensive performance against a 49ers defense that just allowed Colt McCoy to go 22/26 for 249 yards and a TD.

Jimmy G was averaging just 198 passing yards per game the four games prior while Stafford has consistently been in the 280-350 range with his worst performance coming against the Giants (251 yards) because the game was a blowout and he only had 28 attempts. That’s the only way I see this bet losing, the Rams jumping out to an early lead and coasting while Jimmy G racks up garbage time yards. Either way, I still feel comfortable that Stafford will come out on top and pay the extra juice on it because we’re getting the much better QB and offense.

Cooper Kupp over 97.5 receiving yards

Kupp has had double digit targets in every game but one this season (where he had 9 targets for 7 catches) and it’s no secret he’s the go to guy in this Rams’ offense. With Robert Woods going down and OBJ coming in fresh, I expect Kupp to get an even heavier workload than usual. He has had 90+ receiving yards in every game this season besides their loss to the Cardinals, so I love his odds of going for 100+ against this struggling 49ers secondary in the Rams pass heavy offense looking to make a statement after last week.

Follow along on the Action app here, Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC