MLB two team parlay (+242) – 6/17/21

CHC ML over NYM +115, TB ML over SEA -170 (+242)

Another tough loss yesterday as Sandy Alcantara dominated as expected, but the Marlins failed to score a single run and fell to the Cards 1-0 on a walkoff in the bottom of the ninth.

We were able to make up some ground by doubling up on the Indians and adding the Giants, ending yesterday 2-2 (+1.21u). Today, the Mets are looking to finish off a rare four game sweep of the Cubs with Marcus Stroman on the mound facing off against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs.

The Mets are given the slight edge in this game due to their recent hot streak and pitching matchup I assume (4.46 ERA for Hendricks and 2.33 ERA for Stroman), but the Cubs have been nearly unbeatable in games Hendricks’ has started since May.

During that span, Hendricks has gone 7-1 over his eight starts, providing a quality start in all but his one loss to the Pirates back on May 9th, where he went five innings and gave up 4 earned runs. Over his last 6 starts, Hendricks has thrown 40 innings while only giving up 13 runs for a 6-0 record and 2.93 ERA.

Add this to the fact that it’s so hard to beat a bad team three or four times in a row, let alone an above average team like the Cubs, so I’ll take the plus money given with Hendricks on the mound and see Chicago avoiding the dreaded four game sweep.

Next, to hopefully finish things up tonight we have lefty Rich Hill (56.0 rolling game score) and the Rays taking down the Mariners and Justin Dunn (49.1 rolling game score).

Even when he’s been successful, Dunn hasn’t pitched deep into games and his only start this month he got rocked by the Indians, giving up 9 hits and 5 runs over only 3 innings of work. Add to the fact that Seattle has a bottom tier bullpen this season, I don’t see the Rays having any issues putting up runs tonight.

Rich Hill needs to step up in a big way with Tyler Glasnow going on the IL, and I expect him to do so tonight. The Mariners are last in the league against left handed pitching, hitting an abysmal .214.

Hill’s stellar season has been overlooked so far (5-2 3.38 ERA) due to the awesomeness that is Glasnow, but tonight is the perfect setup and opportunity for Hill to temporarily step into the “ace” role for the Rays and get them back on the right track after dropping 2 of 3 to the White Sox.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+197) – 6/16/21

MIA ML over STL -120, CLE ML over BAL -162 (+197)

We hit again on the Rays/White Sox game yesterday as Chicago and Keuchel shut down the Rays on their way to a 3-0 victory, but the Nationals fell short of upsetting the Dodgers after being tied 3-3 late in the game, eventually falling 5-3.

Today, I’m back with a safer two teamer that I love the odds on hitting, starting with the Marlins taking down the Cardinals to avoid the sweep. The Marlins have one of their best pitcher on the mound, Sandy Alcantara (54.9 rolling game score), while the Cards trot out their worst starter, Johan Oviedo (44.4 rolling game score).

Alcantara has been pitching extremely well this month, logging 20 innings over 3 starts while only giving up 7 runs and striking out 16. He also had a very strong start against the Cardinals earlier this season where he pitched 6 innings while giving up 2 runs and striking out 10.

With the huge discrepancy in the pitching matchup and the Cardinals offense struggling mightily as of recent (averaging 2 runs per game over their last 4), I love the value on this Marlins play to start the day off early.

Next, to close thing out tonight I like the Indians to take down the Orioles to win their third in a row and push the Orioles losing streak to seven games. Cleveland has Aaron Civale (55.0 rolling game score) facing off against lefty Keegan Akin (49.6 rolling game score).

The Indians are playing like the team we expected them to be over the past week or two and the same can be said for Baltimore as they’re quickly showing they’re the worst team in the AL.

I was expecting this line to be much closer to -200 with how dominant Civale has been this season (9-2 3.17 ERA) facing off against one of the leagues worst offenses, as Baltimore averages less than 4 runs per game (23rd in the league).

Along with the Indians offense starting to wake up recently, I love the value on this play and foresee a solid start from Civale and for Cleveland to knock around Akin and the O’s bullpen to cash the parlay tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+371) – 6/15/21

CWS ML over TB -115, PHI ML over LAD +142 (+371)

We hit on the Rays and Nationals yesterday, but the Royals kept us from a monster day. However, we still managed to go 2-2 (+0.35u). Today we’re going back to a two teamer including the Rays and White Sox again, but today I like Chicago to come out on top.

A couple of left handed pitchers faceoff in this matchup, with Dallas Keuchel of the White Sox taking on Shane McClanahan of the Rays. The White Sox have mashed left handed pitching all season, ranking 3rd in the league with a .273 batting average.

The Rays on the other hand have struggled for the most part against left handed pitching, ranking 24th in the league with a .222 batting average. Add to that the fact that Keuchel has been solid over his past 5 starts (28 innings 11 earned runs allowed) while McClanahan has failed to make it past the 3rd inning in his two most recent starts, I foresee an offensive explosion from the White Sox offense and good enough start from Keuchel to get the W.

Next, our underdog pick is Zach Eflin and the Phillies to take down Julio Urias and the Dodgers. While the Dodgers still might be the best team in the NL, they’re still often overvalued which is why I love the plus money of over 140 on the Phillies.

Urias has struggled in his three most recent starts, giving up 21 hits over 16 innings while allowing 11 runs. The Phillies are also a top 10 team in the league against left handed pitching, so I expect them to have some early offensive success in this game.

Despite his 2-5 record, Eflin has been solid this season for the Phillies with a 3.89 ERA and is coming off a start against the Braves where he only gave up one run over 6 innings while striking out 7.

Due to these factors, I love the plus money value on the Phillies tonight to close out our parlay after a stress free win from the White Sox.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB three team parlay (+466) – 6/14/21

WSH ML -125 over PIT, KC ML -148 over DET, TB ML -114 over CWS (+466)

To kick off the first leg of our parlay, I like the slightly favored Nationals to take care of business against the Pirates with Jon Lester taking the hill for the Nats facing off against JT Brubaker of Pittsburgh.

Lester struggled early on in the season but has found his footing his past three starts, giving up only 3 runs over 13.1 innings. I expect him to continue this trend today against the worst offense in the league, with the Pirates only averaging 3.48 runs per game.

After starting the season off strong, Brubaker has struggled his most recent four starts, giving up 15 runs over 21.2 innings of work. With a decent start from Lester and enough offense early against the Pirates’ starter, I love the odds on the Nats to cruise to an easy victory to start us off strong.

Next, Brad Keller and the Royals take on Matthew Boyd and the Detroit Tigers. The Royals are coming off a brutal west coast trip where they dropped 6 of 7 to the Angels and A’s, but are back home with their best pitcher on the hill against one of the worst teams in the AL.

After a horrible start to his season, Keller has turned it around and turned into the ace the Royals needed with Danny Duffy going on the IL, going 43 innings with a 3.86 ERA since the start of May. In his most recent start against the Royals, Boyd made it through 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and 5 earned runs.

With Detroit giving up even more runs than they typically do in the past week or so and the Royals offense due for a bounce back performance with Keller on the mound, I see KC providing enough offensive support to pull this one out.

Finally to close things out, we have a great pitching matchup with Tyler Glasnow of the Rays taking on Lance Lynn of the White Sox.

The White Sox have been crushing the ball and proving why they’re one of the best offenses in the league the past week or so, but have been doing so against the Tigers and other inferior pitching.

I expect a low scoring, grind it out type of game that the Rays are more accustomed to, so while I’m admittedly less confident on this game than the other two, I like the odds given to boost the parlay and have much more confidence in the Rays to pull it out with this pitching matchup.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB three team parlay (+524) – 6/4/21

DET ML over CWS +132, STL ML over CIN -142, LAA ML over SEA -173 (+524)

To kick things off, I love the plus money of over 130 on Detroit with Spencer Turnbull (54.2 rolling game score) on the mound against Dallas Keuchel (51.1 rolling game score). Turnbull has been solid his last two starts since no hitting the Mariners, giving up just 4 runs in 12 innings.

Keuchel on the other hand, despite his 4-1 record, has struggled to find his footing so far this season with an ERA up at 4.53. Over his past two starts, he has only managed to make it through 9 innings while giving up 14 hits, 7 runs, and only striking out 6. The Tigers have been playing a lot better overall the past week, so with their ace on the mound I love the value in this play.

Next, I have the Cardinals taking down the Reds after falling to them 4-2 last night. Kwang Hyun Kim (50.8 rolling game score) is on the hill for the Cards against Luis Castillo (49.7 rolling game score). Kim has been above average for St. Louis so far this season posting a 3.65 ERA over 8 starts, while Castillo has been knocked around all season (1-8 7.22 ERA).

In his two starts against the Cardinals this season, Castillo has only managed to make it through 8.1 innings while giving up 14 runs. With the Reds last in the league in runs allowed per game (5.39), I have total confidence in the Cards having a big offensive day with Kim doing enough to get the win.

Finally to close things out we have the most interesting man in all of sports, Shohei Ohtani (51.8 rolling game score), facing off against Robert Dugger (43.5 rolling game score) of the Mariners.

Dugger has struggled mightily so far this season, posting a 6.23 ERA over 9 games, 7 of which he appeared out of the bullpen and 2 that he started. In his one appearance against the Angels earlier this season, he gave up 2 runs over only 3 innings of work. In his most recent start, Dugger only made it through 3.1 innings against the A’s while giving up 5 runs and walking 3 batters.

With this huge discrepancy in the pitching matchup and Seattle being ranked 26th in the league in runs per game (3.79) and also trending downwards in runs allowed (6.67 over their past three games), I predict a stress free victory for Ohtani and the Angels to cash out the parlay late tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+185) – 5/6/21

MIN ML over TEX -167, KC ML over CLE -129 (+185)

We obviously nailed our Orioles pick yesterday with John Means throwing a no hitter, but the Dodgers bullpen was unable to hold onto a lead and they fell to the Cubs in extra innings and got swept.

Today we’re back with some day baseball on this Thursday, starting with Michael Pineda (55.5 rolling game score) and the Twins taking on Jordan Lyles (44.6 rolling game score) and the Rangers.

Pineda has pitched well in all but one of his five starts and has a respectable 2.30 ERA over a month into the season, and now gets to face one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Lyles on the other hand has been knocked around all season (7.39 ERA) and didn’t even make it out of the third inning in his last start, giving up 10 hits and 7 runs while walking 3 batters.

I like the odds on the Twins jumping on Lyles early and Pineda putting together a quality start to cash leg 1 of the parlay.

Next, the Royals are in the midst of a four game skid and are looking to salvage their series against the Indians today and avoid the sweep. Today is get right day for the Royals, as they have their ace Danny Duffy (54.5 rolling game score) on the hill facing the Indians back end starter Triston McKenzie (48.3 rolling game score).

With both these teams being comparable offensively, I was shocked to see the Royals’ odds at better than -150 with this pitching matchup. Duffy has only given up one earned run over his four starts, good for microscopic ERA of 0.60.

McKenzie on the other hand has yet to find much success this season, posting a 6.27 ERA over 4 starts and 5 total appearances. In his most recent outing, he pitched two innings, walked 4 batters, and gave up 5 runs.

The Royals are a much more patient team at the plate this season with additions like Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi, so I like their odds of putting up runs on the Twins and Duffy coming through with another gem of a start.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+230) – 5/5/21

BAL ML over SEA +104, LAD ML over CHC -162 (+230)

We hit on the Mariners yesterday but didn’t hit the parlay due to the Yankees taking down the Astros, but ended the day 2-2 and breaking even (+1.6u on SEA, +1.38u on MIA, -2u on HOU, -1u on the parlay).

Today I’m taking the other side and riding with the plus money on Baltimore with their ace John Means (57.0 rolling game score) on the mound against Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi (48.0 rolling game score).

Means has been dominant so far this season in his six starts, going 3-0 with a 1.70 ERA. Kikuchi hasn’t found the same success quite yet this season (1-1 4.40 ERA over 5 starts), so as I mentioned yesterday with the offenses both being mediocre, I’ll roll with the side with the much better and consistent starting pitcher.

Next, we’re riding with Walker Buehler (57.2 rolling game score) and the Dodgers again over the Cubs after the rainout Monday pushed him back to today, where he’ll face Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay (50.0 rolling game score).

Yesterday the Cubs did what might be the greatest accomplishment this entire regular season by sweeping the Dodgers in a doubleheader with Kershaw and Bauer on the mound in each game.

I don’t see them taking down the final piece of the Dodgers three headed monster today to sweep the series, especially since this is the first top 10 lineup Alzolay (1-2 4.71 ERA) has faced this season as the Dodgers still rank 5th in the league (4.90 runs per game).

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+267) – 5/4/21

HOU ML over NYY +104, SEA ML over BAL -125 (+267)

We had high aspirations yesterday with a three teamer, but the Dodgers got rained out, no action on the Angels due to Ohtani being scratched, and the Royals fell to the Indians 8-6.

Today we’re going back to a two teamer, starting with the Houston Astros and Zack Greinke (54.7 rolling game score) opening up a three game series after an off day against the Yankees and Domingo German (50.3 rolling game score).

German has found success against lesser lineups like the Orioles and Indians, but struggled against the Rays and Blue Jays so far this season. Houston’s lineup is the by far the best he’s faced this season, so I am confident in Greinke outdueling him.

I like the plus money on Houston not only due to their edge in the pitching matchup, but also because their offense has been much more consistent than the Yankees this season. Houston is in the top 5 in the league averaging nearly 5 runs per game, while the Yankees still rank 24th at 3.93 runs per game even with their recent outbreak.

Next, the Mariners take on the Orioles tonight after falling to them 5-3 last night in game 1 of the series. The Mariners have the edge as well in the pitching matchup so I like the value on -125.

Jorge Lopez (43.9 rolling game score) is pitching for the Orioles who has been knocked around all year (1-3 7.48 ERA) while Justin Dunn (49.1 rolling game score) takes the hill for the Mariners (1-0 3.98 ERA). Dunn has been serviceable in all 4 of his starts this season, never giving up more than 3 runs and throwing 5+ innings in all but one start where he went 4.2 innings.

With what I consider to be a big edge pitching wise and two mediocre offenses with Seattle having a slight edge, I see the Mariners bouncing back strong to even the series tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB three team parlay (+515) – 5/3/21

LAD ML over CHC -194, KC ML over CLE +104, LAA ML over TB -102 (+515)

Update: With Ohtani being scratched, we are now on LAD/KC assuming the Dodgers game doesn’t get rained out. If so, just hammering the Royals.

Starting this week off with a three teamer as opposed to the usual two, but I love the value on all three games and think it’s worth the potential payout.

To start us off tonight, the Dodgers and Walker Buehler (57.2 rolling game score) take on the Cubs and Kyle Hendricks (51.8 rolling game score) in Chicago. After their hot start, the Dodgers had a bit of a downward spiral going 2-5 over their last homestand and then dropping the first three games of their current road trip against the Brewers before blowing them out 16-4 yesterday.

After yesterday’s performance and a solid 5 run performance in a losing effort on Saturday, this Dodgers dangerous lineup appears to be heating back up as they face a struggling starting pitcher and a team that is 25th in the league in runs allowed (5.11 runs allowed per game). The Cubs have also somehow been worse over their past 5 games, giving up 36 runs over that span (7.20).

With these trends and the Cubs only coming out victorious once in Hendricks 5 starts this season, I expect the Dodgers to cruise to an easy victory and boost our parlay odds.

Next, the Royals and Indians open up a series in Kansas City with Indians righty Aaron Civale taking on Royals #2 overall prospect, young lefty Daniel Lynch, who is making his MLB debut.

This isn’t your usual rookie debut, as Lynch has the all the makings to be a future ace in this league and for the Royals rotation. He has one of the best fastballs of any left handed starter, sitting in the mid to upper 90s, while also having an excellent slider and above average changeup.

The Royals are the better overall team and this will obviously be the first time the Indians get to see this hard throwing lefty, so I love the plus money on KC as I expect Lynch to throw at least four or five strong innings with Jacob Junis on standby, who has been incredible so far this season as a starter along with the rest of the Royals bullpen.

To close things out, I’m on Shohei Ohtani and the Angles against Tyler Glasnow and the Rays in the most intriguing matchup of the night in my opinion.

The Angels have yet to lose this season when Ohtani starts and I’m not sold on this Rays’ lineup ability to score runs against quality pitching. Over their last 10 games the Rays have only mustered up 25 runs, while the Angels are still a top 10 offensive averaging nearly 5 runs per game.

It may be a nail biter with the quality of pitching tonight, but I like the Angels and Ohtani to lead us to victory and clinch the parlay late tonight.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

MLB two team parlay (+166) – 5/1/21

OAK ML over BAL -187, ATL ML over TOR -136 (+166)

We split yesterday hitting on the Astros, but the Royals fell short after Brady Singer left with an injury after two innings so we ended April 47-45 +10.79 units!

I don’t see any underdogs I like the value on today, so I’m sticking with a two teamer of favorites, starting with the A’s over the Orioles. Oakland has lefty Jesus Luzardo (48.5 rolling game score) on the mound who had a rough start to his season but has settled down over his last two starts, only giving up 3 runs over 12 innings while striking out 14.

Matt Harvey (45.4 rolling game score) takes the bump for the Orioles, who made me eat my words in his last start against the Yankees, only giving up 3 hits and 1 run over 6 innings. It’s not happening again today, as his previous best start was going 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and 3 runs.

The A’s offense should have no problem putting up 4 or 5 runs on Harvey and the bullpen, and that will be plenty with Baltimore having the 2nd worst offense in the AL behind Detroit (3.62 runs per game).

On top of that, the A’s are trending in the right direction only allowing 12 runs over their past 5 games (2.4 runs per game) while the Orioles offense is somehow getting worse, coincidentally only scoring 12 runs over their past 5 games.

Next, after finishing up a homestand against the Cubs on Thursday, the Braves had a quick turnaround and got blown out by the Blue Jays in Toronto last night 13-5.

The Braves will bounce back strong today, as the Blue Jays are trotting out lefty Travis Bergen (47.4 rolling game score) to make his second appearance of the season and 1st career start. The only decent sample size we have on Bergen was his relief work with the Giants in 2019, where he had 5.49 ERA in 21 appearances.

With the Braves having a top 10 offense in the league that has been even hotter recently (31 runs over their past 5 games 6.2 runs per game), I expect them to jump on the unexperienced starter and chase him early leaving Toronto to piece together a bullpen game.

The Braves on the other hand have one of their two best starters on their hill, Charlie Morton (56.5 rolling game score). With the huge discrepancy in starting pitching and the way the Braves have been hitting the ball, I knew I had to jump on this value when I saw it under -150.

As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC