Best MLB bet from Mr. FC – 7/6/22

No dice yesterday on the Padres as they went 1-11 with RISP and left 11 on base. Back on the horse today to start a new streak!

Angels -1.5 over Marlins +110

It’s Ohtani day! The Angels currently are riding a 4 game losing streak after getting swept by the best team in the league (Astros) and dropping game one of the two game series to Miami 2-1 yesterday. The Marlins are one of the hotter teams in baseball, currently on a 6 game winning streak (4 coming against the 29-54 Nationals), but I expect these streaks to come to an end tonight.

Shohei Ohtani (59.1 rolling game score) has pitched just about as well as you can in his last 4 starts, only giving up ONE run over 26.2 innings. He’s also struck out 36 over that span while only giving up 14 hits and 6 walks. Most importantly, the Angels have won by at least 3 runs in each of those games (4-1 over White Sox, 5-0 over Royals, 4-1 over Mariners, 5-2 over Red Sox).

Lefty Trevor Rogers (50.3 rolling game score) takes the hill for the Marlins, boasting a 5.56 ERA over 15 starts this season. The month of June was a huge step back for Rogers, who posted a 7.06 ERA over 5 starts and 21.2 innings of work. He also struggled mightily with his control, walking 15 batters while only striking out 21.

I love the plus money value we get here likely due to the Angels recent struggles and the Marlins being hot, but it’s a whole new ballgame and team when Ohtani is on the mound. You can take Angels ML around -160 if you feel more comfortable there, but the Angels should be able to push across at least 3-4 runs against a struggling Rogers which should be enough to cover the RL with how Ohtani is pitching.

Follow along on the Action app here (all verified picks), Twitter @itsafullcount, or Facebook.

Mr. FC

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