I’m back! After a brief writing hiatus, it’s time to jump back into things. Currently on a 6 day hot streak and 17-8 (+7.11u) the past 7 days. Keeping it simple today, one MLB play to win one unit. Let’s get it.
Padres -130 over Mariners
I love the value on the early game today (3:10 CT) that will feature a solid pitching matchup, Logan Gilbert (53.9 rolling game score) of the Mariners against Mike Clevinger (58.1 rolling game score) of the Padres.
Despite having nearly identical ERAs for the season (2.66 and 2.79), Clevinger has been the much better pitcher recently, giving up only one earned run and 5 hits over his last two starts while striking out 9 over 10 innings of work, including six shutout innings in his most recent start.
Gilbert on the other hand is trending downwards, giving up 7 earned runs and 17 hits over his last two starts over 11.2 innings. The Padres top 10 offense is also due for an explosive game (especially against a struggling pitcher), so I expect them to put up plenty of run support behind a stellar performance from Clevinger against Seattle’s 25th ranked offense in runs per game.