It’s been awhile, but glad to be back! I took a little Spring Break vacation with my wife and now I’m ready to crush the rest of the tournament!
Arkansas (#18) +9.5 over Gonzaga (#1)
Both of these teams have been somewhat underwhelming in their first two games to make it here, with Arkansas beating Vermont by 4 and New Mexico State by 5 while Gonzaga handled Georgia State in the first round by 21 but needed a godly like performance from Drew Timme in the 2nd half to beat Memphis by 4.
With two experienced, well coached teams, 10 points is entirely too much to expect Gonzaga to cover with how they’ve been playing recently. Arkansas is good enough defensively (14th in the nation in AdjD) to slow down the top ranked Gonzaga offense to keep things close. When push comes to shove, if you can’t trust Gonzaga to cover double digits against Memphis, you certainly can’t expect it in the Sweet 16 against Arky and the Muss Bus.
Admittedly, I’m a tad biased because I have a +3000 future on Arkansas to win it all, and while I don’t know if they’ll pull off the upset, I think they’ll at least cover the 9.5.