Baylor -2 (#3) over Texas (#14)
Happy last day of February! If you’ve been reading, you know I typically like to focus on the mid majors to find the most value, but with a small slate and nothing jumping out at me, I’m going with the biggest game of the night, the Baylor Bears heading into Texas to take on the Longhorns.
Baylor 24-5 (12-4) is a half game behind Kansas (12-3) for 1st place in the Big 12, while Texas 21-8 (10-6) is locked into the 4 seed. I know this feels like a classic trap game for Baylor coming off their huge home win against Kansas, but I feel like that’s why we’re getting this line rather than something closer to 4 or 5 which would make me nervous.
With the Big 12 regular season title hanging in the balance and Baylor looking to add a top road win to their resume to make a final push towards a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament, I don’t foresee any type of letdown or slow play out of the gate from the Bears. They also handled the Longhorns with ease back on February 12th with a 17 point win (80-63).
Both of these teams are solid defensively, with Baylor ranking 19th in the nation with Texas coming in at 18th in defensive rating. However, the Bears have the edge offensively, ranking 29th vs 95th in offensive rating and 45th vs 131st in FG%. They also rebound and move the ball much better than Texas, ranking 84th vs 269th in rebounding and 19th vs 169th in assists.
With Baylor already taking care of Texas with ease just a few weeks back, the Bears playing for their Big 12 title hopes, and their edge offensively over the Longhorns, I’m rolling with Baylor to win and cover to end February strong and start the week out right!