Rather than diving into each match this weekend, I’ll share some of my thinking in general. Whenever there’s an international break, I tend to be cautious because it’s hard to know just how crisp teams will be after some time off. Of course Covid has made almost every week feel like that, and for these reasons, all of my picks are 1u this weekend.
The Bundesliga and Serie A have been the highest scoring and most entertaining leagues so far this year, and especially recently. There are a handful of matches in Italy this weekend between 2 clubs with good to great attacking capabilities, but the totals for those games range from 3 to 3.5. As expected, the total in the Dortmund v Leverkusen game is 3.5, which is a bit high for my money. It’s okay to pass on games like this because there could always be opportunities to bet it live at a better number.
I have a play in the Dutch league (Eredivisie) and will continue to watch and monitor that league to see if there’s any value. The reason being that I find less and less value in Spain (La Liga) each week, and with a non-major league like the Eredivisie, stuff might jump out the more I track it. Lines are sharper the bigger the league, but we try to stay ahead of the curve.
I’ll start posting recap articles as well, where you may find some useful information as to where I went right or wrong. Let’s get to the picks.
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