Best CBB bet for Friday from Mr. FC – 2/4/22

It’s been a great week for posted plays (5-0)! I started off Monday with a double hit on the Duke spread/under, easy wins on Tuesday and Wednesday with Fresno State and Arkansas, and had UMKC pull it out late last night to cover the 6.5. Let’s finish the week the same way we started, strong as hell!

St. Bonaventure (#96) +4 over Richmond (#86)

It’s Bonnie time! These two teams entered the preseason as the favorites to win the Atlantic 10 (St. Bonaventure earned all 24 1st place votes), but both of their seasons have been underwhelming so far. The Bonnies are sitting at 12-6 (4-3) and 6th in the A10 while Richmond is 14-8 (5-4) sitting at 7th, both teams 3 games behind 1st place Davidson.

These are two evenly matched teams but Richmond’s greatest strength, forcing turnovers, should be counteracted by the Bonnies who are in the top 30 in the country in turnovers allowed per game (10.9). I also feel like Richmond is getting a few extra points due to recency bias as they blew out Duquesne (#252) by 17 (who St. Bonaventure beat by 8), while the Bonnies just lost to Davidson (#55) by 5, who also took down Richmond a few weeks ago.

In Richmond’s most recent game against Duquesne, they shot 13/24 from 3 (54.2%), while entering that game they were only hitting 3 pointers at around 27% in conference play. I obviously expect a regression back towards the mean against the Bonnies after their crazy hot shooting day on Tuesday. Also, when looking at recent common opponents, the one that really stands out is St. Joseph’s (#150). The Bonnies handled them with ease, winning by 11, while Richmond got blow out by 27.

I feel like anything can happen in this game since they are pretty equivalent talent wise, so based off what I’ve mentioned above along with getting the 4 points, I’m rolling with underdog Bonnies tonight, also seeing the value on the ML (+150).

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Mr. FC

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