This is the time of year when a teams ranking in the top 25 can lead to value, which can be hard to come by when at least one team involved is ranked. Team(s) ranked = bigger game, bigger game = more people watch, more people watch = more people bet, more people bet = less value for us. Using my new, advanced statistical algorithm (my gut), we should be able to bankrupt any and all sportsbooks. More seriously, we just need to find the teams where the spread is either A. a little bit off, or B. one of the teams has a great or terrible spot.
Georgia beat Bama because Bama can’t really defend and UGA could match their effectiveness in transition, but also because it was a big game for UGA and a horrible spot for Bama. Right before a big week of games, and right after a big and emotional game as well.
With that being said:
I don’t question whether Auburn is the better team, or even if they’re deserving of the #1 ranking (they are). Bama will struggle to defend all night, and it’s hard to imagine Auburn not getting to 80 points. *extreme Stephen A voice* HOWEVER… I’ve had many long talks with Nate Oats, and I consider him a dear friend. If you need further convincing I’ll hop out of Stephen A mode to tell you how fun Bama’s guards are, and how good this game should be. Bama has lost to some bad teams. They’ve also beaten some great ones. UCLA is the only team from last year’s Final 4 who Bama hasn’t beaten, and they should be ready to go and get revenge after losing to Auburn already this year
Tennessee is an underrated team this year, and that has nothing to do with the fact that I have a future on them. Now… you may be saying that this has everything to do with me having a future on them, to which I’d reply respectfully, shut the fuck up. What’s that? You STILL think I’m blinded by my biases? Or are you now wondering whether I used biases correctly? Maybe you’re Googling it to see if it’s a real word. Whatever the case, 11.5 is too much. A&M lost 3 games in a row to Kentucky, @ Arkansas, and @ LSU… by a combined 15 points. They just played a poor 2H in a loss to South Carolina to make it 4 L’s in a row. Others may cower and hide in a situation such as this. I happen to believe they’re still a decent squad, in a big game for them. I don’t see how this could be nearly the same case for a Tennessee team who already knows their potential, and more importantly will have much bigger games on the schedule. Take A&M with 2 good defenses on display.
Texas A&M +11.5
Kansas is for real, they just happened to get their doors blown off at home to Kentucky. Love this spot vs nearly everyone, so I’ll lay the points against an ISU team that has some wins that don’t look nearly as good now as they did when they happened.
Editors note: KU will be without Ochai Agbaji due to COVID safety protocols.
My good friend Joe Rogan loves these ones too:
W Michigan o133.5 (-120)
Providence +3.5 (-105)
he/him/hardworking/alpha male/jackhammer/merciless/insatiable in real life.