So I’m admittedly riding a bit of a high (which means the gambling gods may bring me down a peg) after hitting my +1086 five team parlay yesterday and going a respectable 2-1 ATS making a nice profit on Sunday. Cashout with my bookie is on Tuesday (screw Missouri/Kansas), so why not throw a unit on the Monday Night game?
Bills -2.5 over Patriots
I don’t have any fancy statistics or loads of research that I’ve done on this pick, but when I look at these two teams, I see one team that’s being extremely overvalued based on their track record and one that’s being undervalued. Yes, the Patriots are on an impressive run, but they’ve done it against non contenders (Titans without DH, Falcons, Browns, and Panthers).
The Bills on the other hand dominated the Saints on Thanksgiving after their disastrous performance against the Colts, so I feel much more confident in the track record of Josh Allen and the Bills over Mac Jones and the Pats with their weak wins. I feel like the Bills are at the very least a field goal better than the Patriots, so with them being at home I’m banking on them to win and cover tonight and take control of the AFC East.