Travis Kelce o5.5 receptions -140
This is a prop I’ve played a lot the past few seasons with how frequently Kelce is targeted in this Chiefs offense, and lots of time it’s up at 6.5 instead with not much better odds. However, due to a slow few weeks, we’re getting better value on his reception prop tonight. Despite “only” putting up 5,8,5,4 catches the past four weeks, he’s still been targeted 32 times and has had some uncharacteristic drops. Kelce typically plays well against AFC West opponents, especially the Broncos, and with a lot of attention on Tyreek Hill tonight I think Kelce explodes for a big bounce back game.
Tyreek Hill Anytime TD -120
All Hill does is score TDs, especially in primetime, so even with the juice I’ll take these odds all day long. Not only does Hill always have the potential to bust a long one for a score, but he’s Mahomes favorite redzone target, getting a whopping 22.6% percent of the red zone throws. For comparison, Kelce is only getting 11.3% of the red zone targets from Mahomes. Andy Reid and their superstars especially seem to shine in divisional games as mentioned above, so lock in Hill to get in the endzone tonight.
Patrick Mahomes o18.5 rushing yards -110
So it’s been a few games since he’s hit this number, but Mahomes put up 20+ rushing yards in five of his first seven games this season. He’s never hesitated to tuck and run, especially on third down when Kelce and Hill take their defenders downfield and their backs are to him, leaving him open lanes to get chunk yardage. All it takes is for him to bust one or two loose and I think he’ll surpass this number with ease tonight. Just don’t kneel it away!