It’s that time of year and to kick things off we’re being blessed with…. the Bears and Lions? Even better, the Andy Dalton led Bears and Tim Boyle (maybe) led Lions! Going to try to not overthink this play too much since I have no idea how the actual game will go…
Bears @ Lions Under 41.5
Two bad teams led by even worse quarterbacks now that will do everything they can to establish the run and win a low scoring, ugly, defensive battle. These Thursday/Thanksgiving games can get ugly anyways, but this one is shaping up to be all time stinker. Aside from some crazy special teams or defensive TDs, I love the odds on these offenses playing in the teens (MAYBE low 20’s for the winner) to secure the first W of Turkey Day.
Edit: Goff is starting but doesn’t change my pick, still like the under.
Cowboys -7.5 over Raiders
I was hesitant at first to take the Cowboys as the 7.5 feels like a lot given that Dak and the offense has laid an egg in two of the past three weeks, only scoring 16 against the Broncos and 9 against the Chiefs. However, it is important to note that the Chiefs defense has been playing like one of the league’s best for the past month or so, and Steve Spagnuolo flat out outcoached the Cowboys on Sunday with his superior game plan.
This is more of a bet against the Raiders, as there in the middle of their free fall we were expecting, losing 3 games in a row by an average of nearly 18 points. Over that stretch, they’ve given up an average of 32 PPG, so this feels like another get right game for Dak and the Cowboys like the Falcons were two weeks ago.
Saints +6.5 over Bills
It’s tough to pinpoint the most head scratching team of the NFL season so far since there’s been so many unexpected upsets, but the Bills have to be near the top of that list. After taking down the Chiefs in primetime they appeared to be the next up in the AFC, but have since went 2-3, giving the Jaguars and Urban Meyer their first win of the season and getting blown out by the Colts last week while only beating the Jets and Dolphins.
I feel like this primetime matchup at home against a spiraling Bills team that has been consistently turning the ball over is exactly what this depleted Saints offense needs to get back on track and at the very least cover the spread, maybe even win the game outright.
All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.
NFL spreads/totals YTD: 22-22 (+0.70u)