So it was a bit of a sweat, but I hit once again last Tuesday on Toledo and on Wednesday on NIU in OT to win my 3rd MACtion bet in a row (4-1 overall). I’ve been betting spreads, but since I didn’t feel great about the value on either, I’ll be playing the total in the Buffalo/Ball State game.
Buffalo @ Ball State Under 59.5
To say this has been a disappointing season for both of these teams would be an understatement, as Buffalo (#121) is always expected to compete for the MAC East crown and Ball State (#97) was by far the preseason favorite to win the West. Buffalo now sits at 4-7 and Ball State isn’t much better at 5-6 as they matchup to close out their underwhelming seasons.
The main reason I like the under in this game is I expect Buffalo to come out and use their strength often and early: running the football. They average nearly 200 YPG rushing (46th in the country) and face a Ball State run defense that gives up 171.5 YPG rushing (188th in the county). Outside of them controlling the clock and limiting the number of possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams, the Bulls haven’t been world beaters on the scoreboard recently, putting up just 27 and 18 points their past two games.
On the other side, Ball State has a more well balanced offense but are only averaging 24.8 PPG (96th in the country). In their past 4 games, Ball state has mustered up 17, 29, 31 (against a horried Akron team #176), and 17. With the way both teams are trending and my lack of confidence in Ball State to stop the Buffalo run, I’m going with a MAC under even though I know that it’s a cardinal (pun intended) sin.
All bets are -110 and 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise.