After a 3-2 Sunday against the spread (hitting on KC -2.5, GB -3, MIN +3 while missing on CLE ML and TEN -2.5), I’m finishing up Week 10 with the Rams to cover and a couple prop bets I love to go along with it.
Stafford to have more passing yards than Jimmy G -175
The past two weeks Jimmy G has won this matchup, but once I saw under -200 (likely due to Jimmy G’s recent performances) I loved the value on this play. I don’t foresee Sean McVay and Stafford laying an egg in primetime in back to back weeks after a tough showing against a good Titans defense. McVay is the king of adjustments, and I expect a big bounce back offensive performance against a 49ers defense that just allowed Colt McCoy to go 22/26 for 249 yards and a TD.
Jimmy G was averaging just 198 passing yards per game the four games prior while Stafford has consistently been in the 280-350 range with his worst performance coming against the Giants (251 yards) because the game was a blowout and he only had 28 attempts. That’s the only way I see this bet losing, the Rams jumping out to an early lead and coasting while Jimmy G racks up garbage time yards. Either way, I still feel comfortable that Stafford will come out on top and pay the extra juice on it because we’re getting the much better QB and offense.
Cooper Kupp over 97.5 receiving yards
Kupp has had double digit targets in every game but one this season (where he had 9 targets for 7 catches) and it’s no secret he’s the go to guy in this Rams’ offense. With Robert Woods going down and OBJ coming in fresh, I expect Kupp to get an even heavier workload than usual. He has had 90+ receiving yards in every game this season besides their loss to the Cardinals, so I love his odds of going for 100+ against this struggling 49ers secondary in the Rams pass heavy offense looking to make a statement after last week.