The return of Sandman – NFL Monday Night Play

Saints -4, Under 41.5 (both 1u)

After a brief hiatus due to a very busy couple of weeks, I’m glad to be back!

Seattle games have gone under 4 of 5 times this year, and NO games 3 of 5. The Saints have given up just 18 points per game, and have yet to give up more than 24. These teams both play extremely slow, ranking 31st and 32nd in plays per game so far this season. Both teams are in the top 3 in the red zone touchdown rate, at an absurd 92% (NO) and 75% (Seattle), which are not sustainable. This may seem bad for the under, but the fact that they have been so successful in the red zone so far and have still gone under so much shows me that if the expected regression in the red zone comes, the under will be easy money.

Throw in the fact that Seattle has a backup QB in Geno Smith under center and are missing Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, and I don’t see Seattle scoring much. Remember when Pete Carroll used to have the Seahawks as one of the most run-heavy teams in the league until Russell Wilson threatened to leave? I think he gets back to this with a backup QB in and runs the ball at least 30 times. Last week is a tough game to look at in that sense as they trailed by 14 in the first half and had to throw themselves back into it, but if Seattle can keep it close look for a lot of clock chewing, and avoid that 4th ranked Saints secondary.

On the other side of the ball, Sean Payton has totally changed up the offense this year. Jameis has been on a leash but has performed as well as could be expected with the playcalling. I expect him to manage a slow-paced game better than the inexperienced Geno Smith. This (unfortunately) is not 2019 Jameis. Seattle has the worst defense in the league in terms of total yards allowed and bottom 10 vs the run. Taking the Saints is not as much of a backing of the Saints as much as it’s fading the Seahawks, but I do like the ability of this Saints team to control the game and shut down the Seahawks offense. You have an above-average team with a great defense going against a league-worst defense with a backup QB, 3rd string RB, and porous Oline. Yes, they’re laying 4 on the road but home field won’t be enough tonight. Feel free to parlay these two plays, but I’ll be playing them separately. BOL!

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