I followed up my 8-2 hot streak in NFL with a dreadful 0-3 day on Sunday, missing big on the Chiefs, Texans, and Eagles. I’m leaning towards the Saints tonight, but instead going to just sprinkle on a couple props. Let’s get to it.
Jameis Winston over 202.5 passing yards
The Seahawks are giving up nearly 300 YPG through the air (292.3) and are the 6th worst team in the league in that category. I know Winston started the season between 110-150 his first 3 games, but I think that is part of the reason why we get such a generous number here. Also, two of those games were against two top 10 pass defenses (Panthers #2, Packers #6) and against the Patriots in a game they handled in every other aspect so didn’t need tons of passing yards to coast to a win. In his two most recent games against the Giants (#14) and WFT (#32), he has went for 226 and 279. With this matchup, Jameis shouldn’t have any problem passing this mark of just over 200 yards.
Alvin Kamara over 32.5 receiving yards
Kamara surprisingly was slow on the receiving end especially to start the season, but returned to form last game against WFT, gaining 51 yards on 5 receptions and a TD. The Seahawks gave up 46 yards to Najee Harris last week in their OT loss to the Steelers and have shown themselves to be vulnerable to RBs/FBs making plays out of the backfield. Add in the chance of rain tonight in Seattle, I foresee a lot of screens and short passes coming Kamara’s way and a good chance for him to break one or two off for a chunk.