Back to even on the season at 11-11 thanks to making one of the worst decisions of my betting career and pulling the trigger early on Browns -3.5 at even money. I was right about the Broncos being awful, but not quite enough. Still almost worked out, but looking to get another clean sweep here on these two games just like last week!
This week was a tough slate of games in my opinion, and I couldn’t find any value I liked in the early slate. The 6.5 feels like a lot for the Ravens over an improved Bengals team, the Panthers are inconsistent and the Giants seem to show up when you least expect it, again 8 points is a lot for the Packers over WFT. It feels like anything could happen in Chiefs/Titans, and the Falcons/Dolphins Jets/Patriots feature teams that have been extremely unpredictable week in and week out. So these are the two games I settled on in the later slate that I liked the value on the most, starting with the Eagles getting the points in Las Vegas.
Eagles +3 over Raiders
This is more of a bet against the Raiders than on the Eagles which can be a classic mistake, but Las Vegas is a team that I feel has been overvalued significantly since their thrilling Week 1 OT win over the Ravens on Monday Night Football. They sit at 4-2 while the Eagles at 2-4, but the level of competition these two teams have played couldn’t be farther apart.
The Raiders wins comes against the Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins (in OT), and Broncos, with their losses coming to the Chargers and lowly Bears. That’s one quality win, and that took a ridiculous comeback on MNF Week 1 at home. The Broncos are proving themselves to be at the bottom of the league, especially after falling to Case Keenum and the Browns last night, so I put little stock in that win and the Bears loss looks bad.
The Eagles on the other hand, have beaten the bad/average teams that they should (Falcons and Panthers), while falling to 4 playoff teams, the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bucs. Are the Raiders better than the Panthers were when the Eagles beat them? I don’t think so. I see this as a matchup of two below average teams with the potential to be mediocre, but based off what each time has shown against each level of competition so far this season it should be closer to a pick ’em with the Raiders being at home, so I’ll take the Eagles as the better team and the field goal although I expect them to win outright.
Texans +18 over Cardinals
Too many points to not take in my opinion. The Cardinals have only covered this number twice this year, and with their 6-0 record it wouldn’t be shocking to see them let off the gas and rest some key players if they get a comfortable lead. This leaves plenty of room for a backdoor cover even if the Texans can’t keep it competitive as anticipated.
As far as the Texans go, they’ve obviously lost 5 straight since beating the Jags Week 1, in part to having Davis Mills at the reign due to Tyrod Taylor’s injury. However, I think they’ll do all they can to slow this game down and run the ball, as they were effective in that aspect in their blowout loss last week against the Colts, going for 119 yards between their 3 running backs on 27 carries (4.4 YPC). Despite their convincing win, the Cardinals still gave up nearly 5 YPC to Kareem Hunt of the Browns last week so they can be susceptible there.
With Houston covering this huge number in 4 out of their 6 games and the above mentioned factors, I’ll take the risk on them scoring a touchdown or two and milking the clock enough to cover the 18 points.
NFL spreads YTD: 11-11 (+1.90u)