So I had another clean 2-0 sweep on my write up last week, also adding on the Titans +6 and Bucs -6.5 (which the Cowboys’ lucky cover evened out I’d say), making it a solid 3-1 week for me. I’m now 8-2 in my last 10 ATS NFL bets after a slow start to the season, so let’s keep the train rolling on Thursday Night Football in Cleveland.
Browns -3.5 over Broncos (+100)
Buy down to -3 if you feel like it’s worth it, but personally I don’t see this game being close. This matchup of 3-3 teams is proof early season records mean little, as the Broncos opened up the season with perhaps the easiest stretch in NFL history (Giants, Jets, Jaguars), and then dropped 3 straight to the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders, of which only one (Baltimore) is of playoff caliber. The Browns on the other hand have two close losses to two of the best teams in the AFC (Chiefs and Chargers) along with their loss last week to the undefeated Cardinals.
The Browns have obviously been hit hard with injuries and Nick Chubb’s status is up in the air, but as long as Baker Mayfield is able to take the field (which all signs point to that he will), I don’t see anyway that the Broncos are able to get enough stops or keep up offensively after giving up 34 points to a reeling Raiders team. Based off the strength of schedule and what we’ve seen from each team so far this season, the Browns should be close to a touchdown favorite in my opinion, so I’ll take them to cover at home on Thursday Night Football.
NFL spreads YTD: 11-10 (+2.90u)