I followed up my 2-0 Week 4 with a 2-1 Week 5 (added Steelers Sunday morning), finally hitting my stride in this young NFL season. This week I’m going with two plays once again and feeling another clean sweep.
Chiefs -6.5 over WFT
The biggest surprise of the early season is obviously the Chiefs 2-3 start and Mahomes’ six interceptions, matching his total already from last season. However, the Chiefs have played a murderous schedule to start out the year with all three of their losses coming to the other top teams in the AFC (Ravens, Chargers, Bills) while taking down the Browns and Eagles.
They’re facing another 2-3 team in WFT, who barely squeaked out wins against the Giants and Falcons. Washington’s defense has fallen flat on their face so far this season, being one of the worst units in the league, quite the opposite of what most expected. They’re giving up 31.0 points per game this season (only the Chiefs are worse at 32.6) and WFT is giving up an average of 35.3 over their last 3 games.
The Chiefs offensive execution hasn’t been the issue this season as they are still at the top of the league in yards per game, it’s the offensive turnovers, giving up big plays on defense, and red zone defense that has lost them three games. This is the perfect “get right” game for Mahomes and the offense, and with the defense not having to face the offensive talent they’ve been used to so far this year (Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, etc), I see them getting enough stops to for the Chiefs to cover this spread with a 30-40 point offensive effort.
Cowboys -4 over Patriots
I never buy into the Cowboys hype. Never ever. But I have to admit, I got my foot in the door this season as they’ve been by far one of the most impressive teams in the NFC so far. They come into this game riding a 4 game winning streak after losing the opening game to the Bucs 31-29, handling the bad teams as they should (20 and 24 point wins against the Eagles and Giants) and pulling out games against the solid to above average squads (3 point and 8 point victory over the Chargers and Panthers).
I think this Patriots team is closer to the former than the latter. Although they were able to pull out a late win against the lowly Texans, they let DAVIS MILLS throw all over them, who might be the worst QB I’ve seen start a game in the NFL (and I had to suffer through Tyler Palko starting for the Chiefs back in 2011). There’s no evidence that leads me to believe this high powered offense led by Dak Prescott will be slowed down this weekend, and I don’t see the Mac Jones and the Pats being able to generate enough points against this Cowboys’ defense that has largely exceeded expectations this season. Take the Cowboys to cover and let’s get above .500!
NFL spreads YTD: 8-10 (-0.10u)