After a slow start to the NFL season, I had a solid 2-0 Week 4 and went 2-1 this week, hitting on the Rams Thursday night and Steelers yesterday, while also making my worst bet of the season on the Jaguars. This brings me to 8-9 overall this season betting spreads, but +1 unit thanks to a few 2 unit plays.
Tonight, I obviously love the Ravens as they appear to be regaining status as one of the AFC’s elite and continue their dominance on the ground, as well as seeing improved passing from Lamar Jackson. However, the -7 is a big number and always makes me nervous on the backdoor cover if I’m not confident in a high scoring blowout, so I’m going the teaser route for tonight.
Ravens -1, Under 52 (-110)
The Ravens look to make history tonight (much to Vic Fangio’s displeasure) and make it the 44th consecutive game they’ve rushed for over 100 yards, breaking the Steelers’ record set in the 70s. They’re going against a Colts defense that is giving up an average of 114 rush yards per game, and has only faced one potent run offense so far this season (when Derrick Henry went for 113 yards against them in Week 3 in their 25-16 loss to the Titans).
The Colts only win this season came last week against the Dolphins, and as a noted non-believer in Carson Wentz, I simply don’t see a way they’re able to outplay and outscore this Ravens team on the road in this primetime matchup. The Ravens have been playing well all around since their overtime loss to the Raiders Week 1, taking down the Chiefs, barely beating in the Lions in a game that should have never been that close due to some key drops, and obliterating the Broncos, with huge improvements on defense the past two weeks.
As far as the under goes, the Colts did have some success in running the ball last week with Jonathan Taylor so I think they will try to continue that formula if possible, keeping the clock moving and protecting Wentz as much as possible. I expect to see a steady helping of methodical Ravens drives with 10+ plays and eating up a lot of clock also, so I feel great about a Ravens’ W and well under the 52 total points we get here with the tease.