I hit on both the Chiefs and Ravens in Week 4 for a clean 2-0 sweep, and back at it again this week with two plays, starting with Thursday Night Football.
Rams -2 over Seahawks
I went from being very skeptical to a big believer in the Rams as a top threat in the NFC within the first few weeks. I know they are coming off a tough loss, but the Cardinals appear to be the real deal on both sides of the ball. They’re currently #1 in the league in points per game (35.0) and top 10 in scoring defense as well (21.2). I think there’s a little recency bias in this line, as the Seahawks are without a doubt the most inconsistent team in the league, blowing a game to the Titans and getting handled by the Vikings before taking down San Francisco last week.
Based off what I’ve seen Matthew Stafford do with this Rams offense in such a short amount of time, you can’t help but think he’ll only get more comfortable and keep improving as the season goes on in McVay’s system. With the only blemish on the Rams this season being a loss to a really good Cardinals team, I’ll take my chances on them covering against the unpredictable Seahawks on TNF.
Jaguars +4 over Titans
I think it’s time we all admit what we’ve been thinking for awhile now: the Titans are overrated and likely have been for the past few years. Tough for me to admit as I had them as a lock for the AFC South this season. Oops. But this is QB driven league now obviously, and Ryan Tannehill simply doesn’t have the skill set or weapons (especially with AJ Brown and Julio Jones out) to put up points if Derrick Henry isn’t running people over for 5-7 yards every carry. That sometimes still isn’t even enough, as they just lost to the lowly Jets in OT 27-24 with Henry going for 157 yards on 33 carries.
One of the strengths of this Jaguars team is their run defense, as they’re currently 5th in the league in YPC (3.5). I see this being an ugly, low scoring game as Tannehill will be forced to make plays without his star receivers and potentially without Henry gaining chunks on every touch he gets. Although the Jags sit at 0-4, they played the Cardinals tough in Week 3 and should have gotten out of Cincy with a win last Thursday after a somewhat impressive overall performance from Trevor Lawrence and the team as a whole in a tough place to play against an improved Bengals squad.
With the Jaguars trending in the right direction and the Titans trending the opposite way, I have to take the points and the Jags to get the best value possible. They may not win outright, but I think it’ll be a close game that comes down to a late field goal and I’m not betting on the Titans to cover a damn thing right now.
NFL YTD: 6-8 (+0.1u)