After a solid 2-0 sweep on Sunday to get back on track, I was really tempted to take the Chargers -3 to end the week. However, crazy things tend to happen in divisional games (especially in the AFC West) and I’m still not quite sure what to make of the Raiders yet and if they’re in the same realm as the Chargers. So here are the three prop bets I landed on to make tonight’s viewing experience a little more enjoyable.
Austin Ekeler over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Although his pass catching ability out of the backfield has been much applauded, Ekeler has quietly become one of the best all around backs in the league, averaging nearly 5 YPC (4.7) so far this season. He has yet to hit 58 this season (57, 54, 55), but he had only 11 carries in Week 3 against the Chiefs and 9 carries against Dallas in Week 2, as they obviously were airing it out more to keep up with the high powered offenses they were facing.
We all know about Derek Carr’s great start to the season, but shockingly enough I’m not sold that the 30 year old randomly turned the corner after several years of mediocre (and that’s being generous) quarterback play. I see tonight’s matchup as less of an offensive showdown between Carr and Herbert as advertised and more of an ugly AFC West primetime matchup, so I think Ekeler should get at least 15 carries and will have no problem hitting 58 rushing yards against the Raiders bottom five run defense (4.8 YPC).
Darren Waller over 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
Yes, I know Waller has been “held” to 54 and 65 yards the past two weeks after his insane Week 1 performance (10 catches for 105 yards and a TD), but he has been Derek Carr’s #1 target by far this season (33 targets in first 3 games) and I don’t see that changing tonight. The Chargers just got lit up by another superstar tight end Travis Kelce, who went for 107 yards on 7 catches.
Waller is clearly Carr’s safety blanket, which I think he may need a lot tonight, so I love the odds on him hitting over this number. Waller has busted out at least one catch of 20+ yards in each game this season, so if he can continue that trend and keep getting a steady amount of targets, he should be close to 100 yards again.
Derek Carr over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
We just saw the Chargers defense force 4 takeaways and beat the Chiefs, and as I alluded to earlier, this Derek Carr train has to come to a crashing halt sometime soon. I could see this game going a number of ways, but nearly all of them include Carr needing to drop back 30-40 times tonight, so I’ll take the even money on him throwing a pick.