Week 4 NFL bets from Mr. FC – KC/PHI BAL/DEN

Last week was a 1-2 effort, hitting on the Packers and that’s it thanks to putting faith in Matt Nagy and Justin Fields. Let’s just say I’m due for a good week. I’m sticking with just two games for Week 4, starting with the Chiefs and Eagles.

Chiefs -7 over Eagles

The Chiefs 1-2 start is obviously one of the top storylines of the early season, but it took two late turnovers against the Ravens to blow that game late, and a total of four turnovers against the Chargers to once again lose in the closing seconds. I know the Chiefs history of not covering last season and obviously this season so far, but I see them bouncing back in a big way against a sputtering Eagles team that just got dismantled by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs offense hasn’t been the problem this season, it’s been the uncharacteristic turnovers that you have to think is an anomaly and will stop. The Eagles also just got their first takeaway of the season on Fletcher Cox’s touchdown against the Cowboys, so I’m not too concerned about their defense making big plays with the Chiefs and Mahomes being extra cautious with the ball now that they’re riding a two game losing streak thanks to turnovers.

Besides that, the Chiefs offense is still 6th in the league in yards per game (413). They also got Clyde Edwards-Helaire going last week despite his late fumble to lose the game in Baltimore and his early fumble against the Chargers, going for 100 yards on 17 carries (5.9 YPC). The Eagles have looked awful the past two weeks after their strong start against the lowly Falcons (who we know is one of the worst teams in the league after seeing the Toilet Bowl between them and the Giants last week), so I expect the Chiefs to have their way with the Eagles both through the air and on the ground like the Cowboys did and put up 40+ points in a double digit victory.

Ravens ML over Broncos

As far as the AFC West, the Chargers appear to be the real deal and a threat to the Chiefs. Maybe even the Raiders. However, I’m not sold on this Broncos team at all yet. They’ve played the weakest schedule so far by a mile, beating the Giants in Week 1, the Jags in Week 2, and the Jets in Week 3. Holy shit, that doesn’t even feel real typing it out. Who did Vic Fangio pay to get that roll of the dice out of the gate? But you get where I’m going with this. This may be the weakest 3-0 team in NFL history and we honestly know nothing about the Teddy Bridgewater led Broncos yet because they haven’t played anyone.

The Ravens on the other hand fell in OT to a Raiders team in Week 1 that has proven themselves to be formidable this year, snuck out a win against the Chiefs in Week 2, and beat the Lions on Justin Tucker’s doink miracle kick, although the game shouldn’t have even been that close if “Hollywood” Brown didn’t have hands made of stone. The Ravens still appear to be in the top tier in the AFC right now behind the Chiefs, so I was expecting them to be at least a field goal favorite in Denver. I get that the Broncos can only play who they’re scheduled, but I think we still know so little about this team because of the quality of the teams they’ve played so their record and scores so far this season don’t truly reflect who they are, giving them a few extra points on this line. With it being a pick ’em and some places giving +1 on the Ravens now, I’ll take the Ravens ML, lock it in, and not have a doubt that I’m getting the best value.

NFL YTD: 4-8 (-2.90u)

Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.

Mr. FC

3 thoughts on “Week 4 NFL bets from Mr. FC – KC/PHI BAL/DEN

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