TNF Props CAR/HOU – 9/23/21

This game is going to be either very terrible or very good because of it! To preface this, A) I know that I was terrible last week, it was a fluke. B) If I’m terrible again this week then that’s even better, I’m consistent and you’ll know who to check and fade. With Davis Mills at starting quarterback this game, I think the Texans will be playing a lot of keep away and trying to limit this Carolina team who is looking to go 3-0 on the season. Thus…

Sam Darnold O258.5 Pass Yards

The first two weeks he has thrown for more than 258. I think he will have plenty of chances to throw the ball down the field early and this game will have a slightly different approach than normal. If the Panthers are winning big, usually running the ball comes into play. I think the Panthers will rather let Sam get more comfortable with the offense since it is still new, and he is showing a lot of promise. While McCaffrey is not injury prone either, I think they’ll keep him out of the way of trouble if they do start to take a larger lead. I have a lot of my friends hammering CMC receiving under, but I don’t think it will be that limited. With all that being said this is a new Sam Darnold in a somewhat primetime slot, expect him to come out with a chip on his shoulder against a not-so-great defensive team with a new QB.

David Johnson O16.5 Receiving

Davis Mills is the starting quarterback, expect him to rely on his running backs and simple dump downs throughout this one. Carolina leads the league in sacks as of now so Mills will have to adapt quickly and get rid of the ball fast. David Johnson only gets a few opportunities a game, but I think he’ll get a few more and one big play locks that down for ya.

Mark Ingram O9.5 Carries

While Ingram splits carries, he had 26 in a Week 1 massacre and 14 in a Week 2 struggle. He is their typical first and second down back, so he is used minimally thus his carries being at 9.5. However, like I said, they want to just play keep away. Expect all 3 running backs to get a couple touches with him leading the way to just simply keep the ball out of Carolina’s hands and most importantly Davis Mills’ hands. He doesn’t make much with his carries so don’t expect every rush to get 10 yards but I think we can count on him touching it.

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