PHI ML over NYM -130, LAD ML over CIN -165 (+185)
Zack Wheeler (60.8 rolling game score) and the Phillies take on Taijuan Walker (49.6 rolling game score) and the Mets to kick off a three game weekend set. I love the value on Philadelphia at -130 because first, they have a huge edge in the pitching matchup.
In his last two starts, Wheeler has thrown 12.2 innings while only giving up one run and two walks, while striking out 17 along the way. Walker, on the other hand, has an ERA over 9 this month while giving up 11 runs over 10.1 innings. Offensively, the Phillies exploded yesterday against the Cubs for 17 runs and have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their past 5 games. They should be able to generate enough offense against Walker and the Mets bullpen to power through to a victory behind a strong start from Wheeler.
Next, I still like the Dodgers even though there’s a lot of juice with the -165. Walker Buehler (59.7 rolling game score) has been nearly perfect this season besides one game in San Francisco against a great Giants team. He’ll be facing a Reds team and lineup that has struggled over the past week, so I expect him to be in his near perfect form.
He’ll be facing off against Luis Castillo (54.4 rolling game score), who has been extremely inconsistent this season and has been hit the hardest when facing tough lineups such as the Dodgers. With the Dodgers trying to keep pace with San Francisco and the Reds finding themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, I see the Dodgers offense staying hot and putting up enough runs to support Buehler and come out on top.