So I hit the over on Monday but missed on the Ravens, ending Week 1 with a 2-3 record. I’m back at it this week with three more plays for Week 2, hammering 3 road favorites that I love the value on.
BUF -3 over MIA
Despite their slip up in Week 1 against the Steelers, the Bills were still the better overall team, outgaining the Steelers in total yards 371 to 252. The reason Buffalo lost was their inability to get into the endzone, settling for 3 field goals, as well as a few special team gaffes. In my opinion this line should be much closer to a touchdown rather than a field goal, and I think a big part of that is the overreaction to both the Bills losing to a good Steelers team and the Dolphins squeaking one out against a Patriots team that obviously still has lots of question marks.
When the Bills did run, they did it successfully against Pittsburgh as Devin Singletary averaged 6.5 YPC on 11 carries. The Dolphins gave up 100 yards to Damien Harris who averaged 4.3 YPC, so even with the Dolphins tough secondary, the Bills should be able to get Singletary going early and play to the strength of Josh Allen and keep the defense guessing with play action. I still think the AFC is very muddled after the Chiefs, but the Bills are still right there in the next tier while the Dolphins still have a ways to go. I like Buffalo by a touchdown, maybe even double digits.
NO -3.5 over CAR
The Sam Darnold revenge game was fun and all, but it’s time to snap back to reality for the Panthers and their new QB. They were able to squeak out a win against the JETS, while the Saints gave the Packers a 38-3 pounding unlike anything we’ve seen in the Aaron Rodgers era for awhile.
The Packers defense is undeniably bad, but this Saints defense is the real deal and Jameis Winston did exactly what he needed to do: avoid mistakes and get the ball in the hands of his playmakers like Alvin Kamara. I loved this Saints team coming into the season and I definitely like the QB and coaching matchup here, so I’m banking on the Saints to come out firing again, focus on limiting Christian McCaffrey, and make Darnold beat them. With this formula, the Saints should have no problem coming out of Carolina with a win and covering.
LAR -4 over IND
As soon as I picked the Bears to cover against the Rams, I regretted it. Classic overthinking pick. But I was dead wrong, that Rams offense is clicking on all cylinders already and Stafford looked like a legit MVP candidate. I try not to overreact to Week 1 too much, but it’s hard not to with the hype going into the Rams season and how they surpassed expectations.
On the flip side, I never have nor ever will be a believer in Carson Wentz. The Colts also had their struggles running the ball (just over 3 YPC) against the Seahawks, and that is a must for them to be even somewhat successful on offense with Wentz at the helm. They now face the tall task of this Rams defense so I see no possible way that the Colts will have the firepower to keep up and score enough points to cover this spread.
NFL YTD: 2-3 (-0.40u)