Sandman Week 1 NFL Bets – SEA/IND DEN/NYG

NFL Week 1

Sandman here. These are going to be my plays for the NFL season long challenge between writers. Going to keep it short and sweet in order to get this out to you guys an hour before noon kickoff. BOL!

Play #1- Colts/Seahawks u49 (-110) 1u

Here’s a play that follows a lot of the logic I presented against the Colts in my futures piece. However, there is additional history to back up this play as well. In Carson Wentz last 6 starts, the under is 6-0 and is 24-16 in starts since 2018. On Seattle’s side, the under is 7-2 in their last 9 games. In the 3 opening games under Reich, the Colts have put up 20,23, and 24, while Seattle has averaged 22 points per game in their openers in 11 seasons under Pete Carroll. Both teams had top 5 units against the run last year in terms of total yards and YPC, and both teams ranked in the top half in rushing attempts last year. This should be a recipe for a lot of punts, and don’t expect either team to get away from the run too early, as Pete Carroll is known for committing to the run and Frank Reich may not be ready to ask Wentz to air it out over 30 times quite yet.

Play #2 – Giants +3 (-115) 1u

Note- Will be waiting to fire at whatever line is available at kickoff after Barkley is active. If not, I won’t be betting on this.

The Giants are going to be a lot better than people think if they can stay healthy. They were 6-5 in their last 11 games last year, and Daniel Jones showed improvement averaging an 86.4 passer rating over the last 10 games after averaging a 67.6 in the first 4 games in which the Giants went 0-4. Getting Saquon back will be huge as well to support Jones in the passing game. They were 7th to last in rushing attempts last year, which was partially due to trailing a lot, but also due to their lack of a playmaker at the position. Not only will Barkley help in the run game, but he should also force the defense to play the run a little more, freeing up more space for Jones. Getting Golladay on the outside to catch the ball along with Engram, Shepard and Slayton, this receiving corps is now above average and ready to help Jones take the next step. 

They also made a key signing on the defensive side adding Adoree Jackson into an already good secondary to help push this unit into the next tier. Denver’s strength of their team, the receiving threats, should be masked relatively well by a Giants secondary that was one of the most improved units in football over the course of the season. In their last 6 games, where they faced Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield, opposing QBs had a 78.1 passer rating which would’ve ranked the Giants defense in the top 12 pass defenses in football last year. This should only get better with the addition of Jackson. 

History tells us the Giants are a good bet as well. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, and the Giants are 8-3 in the last 11 as underdogs. In 2020, the league was 54-48 as home underdogs.

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