I kicked off the NFL season last night with a W (DAL +7.5), so I start the young NFL regular season 1-0 (+2.00u). On Sunday, there is one day game that stands out to me, as well as the Sunday night and Monday night matchup that I’ll be betting.
NE -3 over MIA
I bet this early so was fortunate enough to get -2.5 when it first dropped, but I would still be very comfortable with the -3, where it currently sits at most books. As we know, Mac Jones looked great in preseason, and in my opinion watching rookie QBs make the transition to the NFL is one of the only valuable things to gain from watching preseason football.
More importantly though, the run and short passing game is going to be what wins this game for the Patriots. With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones and the secondary being the strength of this Miami team, I expect New England to take the pressure off their rookie QB, shorten the game, and open up things with play action.
I have never been a big believer in Tua and the Dolphins so that adds to my gut feeling on this pick. On top of that, Tua might be missing his left tackle Austin Jackson (COVID), so the Patriots revamped pass rush should have a field day.
CHI +7.5 over LAR
With a similar line of thinking to my Cowboys pick, I simply think this spread is too high. The Bears are obviously going with Andy Dalton out of the gate instead of Justin Fields, but people seem to have this assumption that the Rams are suddenly going to become the team to beat with the addition of Matthew Stafford.
Do I think Stafford is a big improvement over Goff? Of course. Do I still think it may take a few games for their offense to get clicking? Yes as well. Because of this and the overhype the Rams have gotten, I’ll take my chances with the Bears and the points.
BAL -4 over LV
I also made this pick pretty early before the grim reaper of running backs came to visit the Ravens, but that isn’t going to change my pick because the two reasons I love them aren’t changing: regular season Lamar Jackson and a god awful Raiders defense.
Every year I hear about how Derek Carr showed up to camp “in the best shape of his life” and looks better than ever but I’m not buying it. Never have, never will. The Raiders seem to be the trendy underdog pick this week, but I see the Ravens putting up 30-40 on them and covering with ease.
NFL YTD: 1-0 (+2.00u)