PIT ML over CHC +121, NYY -1.5 over BAL -120, HOU ML over SD -133 (+610)
Before pouring myself into NFL, I wanted to take at least one more day to focus on MLB on this beautiful Friday. After looking over the slate of games, these are the three that stood out to me with the best value, starting with PIT ML +121.
We have a classic suck-off (phrasing) at Wrigley today for a classic Bet While You Work game, with the Pirates riding a three game losing streak after falling to the Cubs in extra innings last night, who have now won three in a row.
These teams are about equally horrible at the moment and it just feels like the Cubs are due to drop one with the pitiful lineup they’re sending out, so I’ll take the plus money on the Pirates to end their losing streak.
Next, I love the revamped Yankees and starter Nestor Cortes Jr. to cover against John Means and the Baltimore Orioles. Means hasn’t been the same pitcher this season since returning from a strained shoulder, posting an ERA well over 5 across 8 starts since returning July 20th.
The Yankees are 6th in the league in OPS against LHP, so I expect them to have a solid offensive day behind a quality start from Cortes Jr., who has pitched at least five innings and given up 3 runs or less in five out of his past six starts.
Late tonight, we have an interleague matchup between two teams with starting pitchers returning from the injured list, Jose Urquidy of the Astros and Jake Arrieta of the Padres.
Urquidy was solid all season until his injury and pitched 7 innings over two rehab starts recently while only giving up one run, while Arrieta hasn’t been effective for years, currently posting a laughable 7.13 ERA this season over 21 starts.
This is the perfect opportunity for the slumping Astros offense to have a breakout game after a day off, while the Padres’ offense has been struggling for a couple weeks now. With the huge edge in the pitching matchup and slight edge offensively, I see the Astros pulling this game out late tonight to cash the parlay.