CFB Play for Thursday Night – 9/2/21

Hey everyone, @sandmanpicks here. I’ve been betting CFB for 3 years now and have developed a betting method that combines numerical analysis and research with knowledge of the game and experience.

Outside of CFB, I specialize in NCAAB and NFL, but college football is definitely my specialty. I’ll be giving anywhere from 2-5 plays per week on this site throughout the season. In my experience that’s the sweet spot to avoid being killed by juice but also have some diversity to limit risk.

I may give out a parlay for fun some weeks as well, and my plays will range from .5u to 2u with the majority just coming in at 1u. With that, I will get into my first play for the 2021 season of college football! 

Bet 1- Ohio State/Minnesota U65.5 1.5u(Thursday 9/2, 8pm ET)

My favorite bet of Week 1, as well as the first game I’ll have action on for this season, is a Big Ten under. There are a few reasons why I love this bet so much, most coming from the Minnesota side of the ball.

Past Precedence– Under PJ Fleck, in games where Minnesota have been underdogs of 6 points or more, the under is 6-1(including a 2017 game vs OSU that went under by 17 points). Last season, Ohio State was 25th and Minnesota was 27th in rush attempts per game, which always bodes well for eating clock and game going under. Additionally, Minnesota was 7th in time of possession last year with a subpar roster that was behind in most games so expect them to try to keep the ball out of the hands of Stroud, even if trailing. If they manage to hang in for even the first half, I’d expect Mo Ibrahim to see at least 30 carries and PJ Fleck to strive for 8 minute drives every time the Gophers have the ball.

Personnel- Both teams lost huge production in their vertical offense, in Rashod Bateman and Justin Fields. Field’s absence will be huge. CJ Stroud, Fields freshman replacement will be eased into the game in a super tough big ten road environment to start his career. Another factor that should limit quick strike offense is Minnesota’s top returning receiver, Chris Autman Bell is currently questionable for the game. Behind him, the most experienced receiver on the Minnesota roster is Daniel Jackson who put up 167 yards on 12 catches in his 2020 freshman campaign. Expect both teams to be even more run heavy early in the season, and for Minnesota to feed their best player and top running back in the country, Mohammed Ibrahim. 

If Minnesota can keep this game within a few possessions throughout the game, and therefore be able to stick to their run game, this game goes under easily. If not, I still expect Stroud to struggle early and for Ryan Day to turn to the ground game to take some pressure off of his true freshman. 

Current Record 0-0 (+0u)

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