DET ML over CWS +132, STL ML over CIN -142, LAA ML over SEA -173 (+524)
To kick things off, I love the plus money of over 130 on Detroit with Spencer Turnbull (54.2 rolling game score) on the mound against Dallas Keuchel (51.1 rolling game score). Turnbull has been solid his last two starts since no hitting the Mariners, giving up just 4 runs in 12 innings.
Keuchel on the other hand, despite his 4-1 record, has struggled to find his footing so far this season with an ERA up at 4.53. Over his past two starts, he has only managed to make it through 9 innings while giving up 14 hits, 7 runs, and only striking out 6. The Tigers have been playing a lot better overall the past week, so with their ace on the mound I love the value in this play.
Next, I have the Cardinals taking down the Reds after falling to them 4-2 last night. Kwang Hyun Kim (50.8 rolling game score) is on the hill for the Cards against Luis Castillo (49.7 rolling game score). Kim has been above average for St. Louis so far this season posting a 3.65 ERA over 8 starts, while Castillo has been knocked around all season (1-8 7.22 ERA).
In his two starts against the Cardinals this season, Castillo has only managed to make it through 8.1 innings while giving up 14 runs. With the Reds last in the league in runs allowed per game (5.39), I have total confidence in the Cards having a big offensive day with Kim doing enough to get the win.
Finally to close things out we have the most interesting man in all of sports, Shohei Ohtani (51.8 rolling game score), facing off against Robert Dugger (43.5 rolling game score) of the Mariners.
Dugger has struggled mightily so far this season, posting a 6.23 ERA over 9 games, 7 of which he appeared out of the bullpen and 2 that he started. In his one appearance against the Angels earlier this season, he gave up 2 runs over only 3 innings of work. In his most recent start, Dugger only made it through 3.1 innings against the A’s while giving up 5 runs and walking 3 batters.
With this huge discrepancy in the pitching matchup and Seattle being ranked 26th in the league in runs per game (3.79) and also trending downwards in runs allowed (6.67 over their past three games), I predict a stress free victory for Ohtani and the Angels to cash out the parlay late tonight.