HOU ML over NYY +104, SEA ML over BAL -125 (+267)
We had high aspirations yesterday with a three teamer, but the Dodgers got rained out, no action on the Angels due to Ohtani being scratched, and the Royals fell to the Indians 8-6.
Today we’re going back to a two teamer, starting with the Houston Astros and Zack Greinke (54.7 rolling game score) opening up a three game series after an off day against the Yankees and Domingo German (50.3 rolling game score).
German has found success against lesser lineups like the Orioles and Indians, but struggled against the Rays and Blue Jays so far this season. Houston’s lineup is the by far the best he’s faced this season, so I am confident in Greinke outdueling him.
I like the plus money on Houston not only due to their edge in the pitching matchup, but also because their offense has been much more consistent than the Yankees this season. Houston is in the top 5 in the league averaging nearly 5 runs per game, while the Yankees still rank 24th at 3.93 runs per game even with their recent outbreak.
Next, the Mariners take on the Orioles tonight after falling to them 5-3 last night in game 1 of the series. The Mariners have the edge as well in the pitching matchup so I like the value on -125.
Jorge Lopez (43.9 rolling game score) is pitching for the Orioles who has been knocked around all year (1-3 7.48 ERA) while Justin Dunn (49.1 rolling game score) takes the hill for the Mariners (1-0 3.98 ERA). Dunn has been serviceable in all 4 of his starts this season, never giving up more than 3 runs and throwing 5+ innings in all but one start where he went 4.2 innings.
With what I consider to be a big edge pitching wise and two mediocre offenses with Seattle having a slight edge, I see the Mariners bouncing back strong to even the series tonight.