OAK ML over BAL -187, ATL ML over TOR -136 (+166)
We split yesterday hitting on the Astros, but the Royals fell short after Brady Singer left with an injury after two innings so we ended April 47-45 +10.79 units!
I don’t see any underdogs I like the value on today, so I’m sticking with a two teamer of favorites, starting with the A’s over the Orioles. Oakland has lefty Jesus Luzardo (48.5 rolling game score) on the mound who had a rough start to his season but has settled down over his last two starts, only giving up 3 runs over 12 innings while striking out 14.
Matt Harvey (45.4 rolling game score) takes the bump for the Orioles, who made me eat my words in his last start against the Yankees, only giving up 3 hits and 1 run over 6 innings. It’s not happening again today, as his previous best start was going 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and 3 runs.
The A’s offense should have no problem putting up 4 or 5 runs on Harvey and the bullpen, and that will be plenty with Baltimore having the 2nd worst offense in the AL behind Detroit (3.62 runs per game).
On top of that, the A’s are trending in the right direction only allowing 12 runs over their past 5 games (2.4 runs per game) while the Orioles offense is somehow getting worse, coincidentally only scoring 12 runs over their past 5 games.
Next, after finishing up a homestand against the Cubs on Thursday, the Braves had a quick turnaround and got blown out by the Blue Jays in Toronto last night 13-5.
The Braves will bounce back strong today, as the Blue Jays are trotting out lefty Travis Bergen (47.4 rolling game score) to make his second appearance of the season and 1st career start. The only decent sample size we have on Bergen was his relief work with the Giants in 2019, where he had 5.49 ERA in 21 appearances.
With the Braves having a top 10 offense in the league that has been even hotter recently (31 runs over their past 5 games 6.2 runs per game), I expect them to jump on the unexperienced starter and chase him early leaving Toronto to piece together a bullpen game.
The Braves on the other hand have one of their two best starters on their hill, Charlie Morton (56.5 rolling game score). With the huge discrepancy in starting pitching and the way the Braves have been hitting the ball, I knew I had to jump on this value when I saw it under -150.