HOU ML over TB -125, KC ML over MIN +123 (+301)
Today, the favorite I see the most value on is the Astros over the Rays. After their slow start, Houston most recently took 3 of 4 from a pair of division rivals, the Angels and Mariners. The Rays on the other hand just split a 4 games series with the A’s after losing 2 of 3 to the Blue Jays.
Over that most recent 7 game stretch, the Rays managed to only score 17 runs (2.4 runs per game), while the Astros offense has been heating up after their surprisingly slow start. Starting for Houston is Lance McCullers (52.3 rolling game score), who has been great in 3 of his 4 starts but has an inflated ERA due to the one bad start.
The Rays send out lefty Ryan Yarbrough (50.5 rolling game score) to make his sixth start of the season. He has been hot or cold, either shutting teams down or getting knocked around for five or six runs. With the way the offenses are trending and the slight advantage Houston has in the pitching matchup, I love the value of -125 on the Astros here.
Next, one of the teams I’ve profited the most off of this month, the Kansas City Royals, opens up a three game set with the Minnesota Twins tonight.
The plus money is too good to pass up in my opinion with youngster Brady Singer on the mound, who has no hit stuff every time he pitches and dominated his past three starts, only giving up 2 earned runs over 18 innings while striking out 22.
The Royals offense has been consistent throughout the season, ranking in the top 5 in the AL in runs per game (4.5), while the Twins are the third worst team in the AL in runs allowed per game (4.7).
The Royals face Twins starter Michael Pineda, who the Pirates knocked around in his last start where he didn’t make it out of the 5th inning while giving up 5 runs. KC has the better starting pitching, bullpen, and offense so I expect them to roll the Twins and keep extending their lead in the AL Central.