PHI ML over STL -123, BOS ML over TEX -123 (+229)
We absolutely nailed it yesterday, hitting our parlay and going a perfect 4-0 (Royals ML, Rays ML, Angels ML, Parlay) to profit 6.28 units in a single day! Not too shabby. We’re back at it today staying hot with another two team parlay on this slow Thursday with two favorites I strongly believe should be closer to -150.
First, we have a day game between the Phillies and Cardinals in St. Louis to wrap up a four game series where the Cards are looking to salvage a split and the Phillies are trying to take 3 of 4 and get moving in the right direction.
The Cardinals are averaging less than three runs over their past eight games and have the tall task of facing Phillies ace Aaron Nola (58.5 rolling game score), who threw a complete game shutdown against them on April 18th two starts ago while only allowing two hits and striking out 10.
St. Louis sends out their back end starter, Kwang Hyun Kim (51.5 rolling game score), to take on Nola today. He has yet to make it out of the 6th inning in either of his starts this season and gave up five hits and three runs in only 3 innings pitched during his season debut on April 17th against Philadelphia.
With this pitching matchup and no other advantages jumping out for the Cardinals, I love the odds on the Phillies to cruise to victory behind Nola today while roughing up Kim early.
Next, the Red Sox travel to Texas to take on the Rangers tonight to start a four game set that will conclude on Sunday. The Red Sox of course got off to a blistering hot start, then came back down to Earth a little in the middle of April, and are now picking up steam again as they’ve won 3 in a row.
Boston is 8-1 on the road so far this season and the Rangers are the second worst team in the AL after the Tigers by a pretty wide margin. With the pitching matchup being Martin Perez for the Red Sox and Kyle Gibson for the Rangers, I could see this being a high scoring affair. In that case, I have all the confidence in the world that Boston can outscore Texas.
My belief is that Texas is being overvalued here due to pitching matchup and small sample size as Perez currently possesses a 5.71 ERA while Gibson’s is 2.30, despite the both being below average to average starters.
As I always talk about, value is the biggest thing I’m looking for and with only 10 games on the docket for today, these are the two I feel the best about.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.