TB ML over OAK -163, LAA ML over TEX -131 (+185)
We hit on MIL ML -158 (+1.27u) and HOU ML -181 (+1.11u) yesterday, but the Mets kept us from having a monster day falling to the Red Sox by a score of 2-1, making us 2-2 (-0.63u). Bouncing back today with a two teamer of favorites that I love the value on, starting with the Rays over the A’s.
The Rays ace Tyler Glasnow (56.0 rolling game score) takes the mound against Oakland lefty Cole Irvin (49.1 rolling game score). Glasnow is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the league as he dominated through his first four starts, only giving up 2 runs over 24.2 innings while allowing 9 hits and striking out 36.
His most recent start he ran into a little trouble with the Blue Jays but still managed to make it through six innings. Today, he’ll return back to his dominant form against a slumping A’s offense that has managed a meager 6 runs over their past 3 games. Irvin has found success this season against the weakest lineups in the league (Detroit and Baltimore), so I trust the Rays offense to produce enough to cruise to victory.
The A’s on the other hand are being overvalued due to their ridiculous 13 game winning streak against mostly poor competition. They started the season 1-7 after playing their first eight games against the Dodgers and Astros. After taking two from Houston to improve to 3-7, the A’s swept the Diamondbacks, Tigers, Twins, and took the first two games from the Orioles in their weekend series before losing on Sunday.
I give the A’s props for what they were able to do because winning 13 in a row is tough to do in the MLB no matter who you’re playing, but with the amount of talent (or lack thereof) on their roster, their regression to who they actually are (the first 8 games) is coming.
Next, the Rangers and Angels finish up a three game series tonight in Arlington after splitting the first two. Alex Cobb takes the mound for the Angels while the Rangers will send out young righty Dane Dunning.
Cobb has struggled a bit in his first three starts against solid offensive teams (White Sox, Royals, Astros), but has still managed to eat up innings and has given up 3 earned runs in each start. Tonight is a great opportunity for him to get right against an inferior Rangers lineup that doesn’t have nearly the firepower he’s dealt with so far this season.
On the flip side, Dunning was great in his first 3 starts against the Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles, but got absolutely blew up by the White Sox in his most recent start. He didn’t make it out of third inning, giving up 8 hits, 2 walks, and 5 runs in 2.2 innings.
Dunning now has the task of facing the Angels’ dangerous lineup, which is currently 4th in the AL averaging nearly 5 runs per game. With the track record mentioned above regarding the starting pitchers and the Angels being the much better overall team, I love the value of -131 on the Angels to cash us out tonight.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.