NYM ML over BOS -145, MIL ML over MIA -158, HOU ML over SEA -181 (+328)
We had our first big miss of the season yesterday as the Twins blew an early lead and lost in extras and the Yankees got shut down by MATT HARVEY, but we were due and are ready to bounce back strong today!
Today, there are three favorites I love the value on, starting with the Mets opening up a short two game series at home against the Red Sox. The Mets will be facing righty Garrett Richards, who has struggled mightily so far this season (0-2 6.48 ERA in four starts.
The Mets offense has underperformed so far out of the gate, but they’ve picked up a little steam the past few series and I expect that to continue as they roll past the overvalued Red Sox for leg 1 of the parlay.
Next, Adrian Houser and the Brewers take on Daniel Castano and the Marlins for game two of a three game set after Miami blew them out 8-0 last night. I expect a strong bounce back performance from the Brewers offense tonight after facing one of the Marlins’ top pitchers last night and another quality start from Houser like they’ve been getting so far this season.
Castano has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in his two starts and Miami has one of the worst bullpens, only converting 4 out of their 11 save opportunities. Even if the Brew Crew aren’t able to jump on Castano early and grab the lead, I have faith they will still come out on top at the end behind Houser and late runs if necessary.
Finally, to (hopefully) finish things up we have the Astros over the Mariners. This has been the most surprising division in baseball so far with the A’s win streak putting them in first at 15-8, followed by the Mariners at 13-10.
The expected first place Astros sit in 4th place but only 3.5 games back at 11-11, and I see them continuing their climb back to the top tonight and starting a winning streak against their division rival.
Tonight, the Astros have their second best pitcher on the mound after Greinke according to FiveThirtyEight, Cristian Javier. Javier has dominated this season and in his young career, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA over three starts. Over his past two starts, he’s given up zero runs, 6 total hits, while striking out 16.
On the other side, the Mariners send out lefty Marco Gonzales (1-2 6.04 ERA), who got blown up in his first two starts but has righted the ship in his past two. However, he’s facing an Astros lineup that is finally living up to its potential, scoring 36 runs over their last 5 games (7.2 runs per game).
Houston’s big six (Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Gurriel, Correa) are all hitting over .300 now with the exception of Correa, who sits at a respectable .282 after his slow start. Behind a dominant performance from Javier and some timely hitting, I love the Astros in this spot to finish up the final leg of our parlay.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.