MIN ML over CLE -126, NYY ML over BAL -163 (+190)
The Twins are one of the biggest disappointments so far in this young season, going 7-13 while having some covid issues.
After having April 17th-19th off, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 after getting swept by the A’s and losing 2 of 3 to the Pirates but I like the odds on the Twins to start turning around their season today behind Jose Berrios against the Indians.
Besides the Tigers (who only scored 3 runs total over the weekend while getting beatdown by the Royals), the Indians have the least dangerous lineup in the AL ranking towards the bottom averaging less than 4 runs per game.
Berrios is the best Twins pitcher in my opinion (55.8 rolling game score), so I like him to shut down the Indians and for Minnesota’s offense to get right against Zach Plesac, who has given up 6 runs in each of his last two starts.
Next, the Yankees spoiled last Friday’s parlay as they responded with 4 homers to beat the Indians, so I’m not making the same mistake again. After taking 3 out of 4 from Cleveland, their offense is finally starting to live up to its potential and is showing a decent track record over the past week now.
They open up a series tonight against the Orioles and Matt Harvey, who’s biggest weakness has been avoiding the long ball.
This bodes well for the Yankees lineup, as I see them continuing to heat up and rough up Harvey for several early runs, so I’m not too concerned about what they get from young righty Deivi Garcia, who’s making his season debut.
With their offense getting right and Harvey on the mound, I was expecting close to -200 for the Yankees ML, so I love the value here even as a heavy favorite.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.