KC ML over DET -117, CLE ML over NYY +123 (+313)
After taking Monday off, we hit on Tuesday to profit +6.05u going 3-0 and came so close yesterday after nailing the MIA/SF under but missing on the Dodgers ML as their offense stayed cold and they fell to the Padres 3-2 making us 1-2 (-1.1u) yesterday.
For the season, we now sit at 31-30 but more importantly, +11.22u. People frequently complain about betting baseball as “it’s too random from day to day” but that doesn’t mean there still isn’t value on a few games each day, which is how we profit in the long term. Today, we love the value on two AL Central teams, the Royals and the Indians.
Both games start at 6:10 central time tonight, so let’s start with the Royals and Tigers in Detroit. The 10-7 Royals have continued to be one of the most undervalued teams by Vegas after a solid offseason where they addressed needs in the outfield and at 1st base, as well as bolstering their starting rotation and bullpen with many young arms.
The Royals offense is starting to hit its stride, averaging 5.67 runs over their past 3 games while the Tigers lineup is the worst in the American League, averaging a meager 3.37 runs per game so far.
KC also has the edge in the pitching matchup with Mike Minor (53.4 rolling game score) in a great opportunity for a get right game facing this Tigers team, while Detroit sends out their 4th best starter Casey Mize (47.2 rolling game score).
I expect a solid outing from Minor and the Royals offense to stay hot behind Soler, Santana, and Perez and the better team should come out on top with ease, so -117 is incredible odds here in my opinion.
The Indians fell to the Yankees 6-3 last night, but one decent night of offense bolstered by some spotty defense by Cleveland isn’t going to sell me on this Yankees team yet.
They have a slight edge in the pitching matchup, but that only helps so much if you’re unable to generate offense as we’ve seen so many times this year with the Yankees as the Tigers are the only team worse than them in the AL in runs per game (3.61).
While I’m admittedly not as confident on this game as the first, once I saw the plus money of over 120, it was too good of value for me to pass up with how this Yankees team has struggled so far this season.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.