MIA/SF Under 8 -105, LAD ML over SD -175 (+207)
We hit big yesterday and had a clean 3-0 sweep (+6.05u), and we’re back at it again with two games we like the value on.
The Marlins and Giants both leave the east cost and head west after the Giants got walked off by the Phillies on Wednesday and the Marlins beat the Orioles in Miami.
The Giants have gone under 8 in 12 of their 18 games, while the Marlins have in 10 of their 17. The under hit 2 out of the 3 games when these teams met last weekend.
Giants starter Aaron Sanchez hasn’t gone deep into games this season but he’s been efficient, only giving up 4 runs over three starts so far this year. Marlins lefty Daniel Castano made his debut against San Fran last weekend, only giving up three hits and one run over five innings.
We love the near even money value here, especially with the somewhat quick turnaround/travel and grind of the season starting to wear on teams.
Next, the Dodgers have yet to lose with Walker Buehler on the mound or at home, so I’m going to continue to ride with it here against Ryan Weathers and the Padres.
Los Angeles has a strong edge in the pitching matchup (57.2 vs 48.5 rolling game score) and their dangerous lineup is due for a breakout performance after a much needed off day. They’ve been averaging 2 runs per game over their past 4, much lower than their season average of 5.22.
Until something changes, if I can get better than -200 on the Dodgers at home with one of their top 3 arms on the mound, I’m taking that value.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here or on Twitter @itsafullcount.