PHI ML over SF -147, LAA ML over TEX -184 (+159)
We were initially going to be on the Tigers and Angels for +177, but are switching it up to the Phillies and Angels due to the cancellation.
The Giants are being overvalued here due to their hot 10-6 start despite being last in the leagues in runs per game (3.19). Their winning formula obviously has been winning low scoring games, but that will be tough with today’s pitching matchup.
San Francisco is trotting out their worst starting pitcher, Logan Webb (46.4 rolling game score), against the Phillies second best arm, Zack Wheeler (56.4 rolling game score).
The Phillies have a much better lineup than the Giants despite their slow offensive start, so I expect early runs and a strong outing from Wheeler to give the Phillies the victory and lift them above .500 on the season.
I was expecting -200 or above for the Angels against the Rangers with Ohtani on the mound, so this value is too good to pass up in my opinion.
The Rangers are still one of the worst teams in the American League and have one of their worst starting pitchers on the mound, so it’s tough for me to see a scenario where they generate enough offense with their lineup against Ohtani to outscore and beat the Angels.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.