BOS ML over BAL -156, KC/CWS Under 8 -105 (+220)
The Red Sox and Orioles meet again already in this young season after the O’s somewhat shockingly swept the Red Sox at Fenway to start the season.
Boston followed it up by sweeping the Rays themselves to get to 3-3, while Baltimore narrowly avoided getting swept by the Yankees in extra innings last night to improve to 4-2.
The journey to below .500 begins today for the Orioles, as they put Matt Harvey on the hill against Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is making his season debut and first appearance since 2019 after missing the 2020 season due to COVID.
Harvey hasn’t been a serviceable pitcher in this league since he helped take the Mets to (and lose) the World Series in 2015, and this Boston lineup has the benefit of seeing him less than a week ago. I expect a lot of early runs from Boston and stellar start from Rodriguez to hit leg one with ease.
The Royals and White Sox are both top ten in the league so far averaging 6+ runs per game, but I expect these inflated numbers to drop today for two main reasons.
First, the pitching matchup has Brad Keller going for the Royals, and Lance Lynn on the bump for Chicago. Don’t let Keller’s one bad start and 40.50 ERA (!) to start the season fool you, as he’s been the most consistent starter for KC over the past few years.
Keller went 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine starts in 2020, so I expect him to bounce back strong to get his season back on track after a hellish first inning to start the year.
We all know what to expect from Lynn, one of the White Sox big offseason additions to bolster their already strong rotation. This Royals offense has cooled off the past few games, averaging under 3 runs their last three games, so that trend should continue facing Lynn.
The second reason I like the under here is the quick turnaround for both teams. The White Sox finished up a series in Seattle last night, while the Royals are coming in from Cleveland after finishing up a two game set there.
This scenario almost always benefits the well rested starting pitchers as opposed to the offenses, especially in this pitching matchup. Anything can happen late, but both teams have solid enough bullpens that I feel great about the under.
As a reminder, I always put 1 unit on the parlay and 2 units on each bet individually. Follow along here.