The old saying goes that the best predictor of the future is the past. While this isn’t always true in sports betting, it is extremely beneficial to identify trends from past years and see how that information will impact your plays for this upcoming weekend.
Starting off with last year’s wild card round, underdogs and the under reigned supreme. Every single underdog covered (Titans +3.5, Vikings +7.5, Seahawks +1) besides one, which was the Texans beating the Bills 22-19 in OT as 2.5 point favorites. The Saints not only failed to cover their large spread, they lost outright to the Vikings.
Even more interesting than the underdog dominance last wild card weekend was that every single under hit. If you bet every underdog and under last year, you would have walked away with a clean 7-1 record for the weekend.
Now let’s go back to the 2018 season wild card weekend two seasons ago. I have a horrible memory so I love looking back and re-remembering these games. The consensus spread on three of these four games (IND/HOU, LAC/BAL, PHI/CHI) was even so not much date there, but the under hit on all three.
The other game was the Cowboys defeating the Seahawks 24-22 as 2.5 point favorites, so Seattle covered while the over (44) finally hit. So over the past two wild card weekends, underdogs are 4-1 against the spread and the under is 7-1.
Let’s go back one more year where we have several big favorites, the Chiefs 8.5 point favorites over the Titans, Rams 6 over the Falcons, Jaguar 9 point favorites over the Bills, and the Saints -6.5 against the Panthers.
This was a good walk down memory lane when the Jaguars defense was insanely good and they were almost double digit favorites in the playoffs! Anyways…
Well guess what? The Chiefs and Rams lose outright and the Jaguars and Saints both fail to cover, making underdogs a perfect 4-0 ATS.
For the under? All hit besides the Saints/Panthers game, making it 3-1 this wild card weekend.
So to sum up the past three wild card weekends, underdogs are 8-1 ATS and the under is 10-2.
It’s very rare to see a trend this significant over this period of time, granted the sample size is small. This doesn’t mean bet every underdog and under.
Look over the board, pay attention to line movement, and keep these two trends in mind when making your plays this weekend. So far, we are initially liking the Bears ATS and the under in that game.